Today let's talk about Ethereum. ETH has risen for 5 days straight, then dropped for 4 days, basically falling back to the starting point of 2380 from 9 days ago, fluctuating 400 dollars up and down 🔪. Regardless of the pattern or the 4-hour line, ETH positions are all chaotic. When did this phenomenon start? Experienced traders should have a deep understanding that the chaos of ETH actually started in the three months of July, August, and September 2024. During that time, ETH consolidated around 2300 for a full three months, which nearly broke people's mental states.

Currently, if you are trading ETH purely short-term, it is completely unmanageable. Moreover, this significant drop occurred around 3 or 4 in the morning. Recently, there have been sharp rises and falls, completely lacking any pattern. I still maintain the previous view of holding long positions around 2400, where you can attack if you advance and defend if you retreat.

Let's talk about BTC (Figure three). BTC has shown three instances of a bearish divergence in the range of 74500-111900 on the daily chart, each time being pulled back. The market experts might have just looked at some candlestick patterns and are calling for shorts at 87000 or 98000 without caring about being trapped, and in the end, the pseudo-experts might get liquidated. This is what I mean by a larger cycle above the candlestick. There may be many experts who can understand candlesticks, but very few who can understand cycles. This is what I mean by prioritizing cycles over patterns.

I also attempted to short BTC at positions 97 and 99, but I withdrew in time (old fans know this). Above 102000 for BTC, I no longer advocate opening short positions. During the process, we opened a position at 108800 break, but we have been holding our long positions at lower levels.

Currently, the key levels for BTC and ETH are at 100000 and 2400. Below these two levels, it is still a low long strategy. This is similar to when BTC was at 80000. When BTC was near 80000, I said to only go long, not short. Now it is the same; near 100000 for BTC, only long, not short.