Trump will start his term as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, with his first term lasting until January 20, 2029. Today marks Trump's 79th birthday, and in four years he will reach the age of 83. Currently, it seems likely that Trump will not seek re-election, which poses a systemic risk to Bitcoin. The next president may not continue Trump's monetary policy, which is a significant unknown.

So if the bull market is considered to start from April 8, 2025, with BTC at 74,500, the Bitcoin bull market window will essentially close before mid-2026. Why this timeframe?

Because November 3, 2026, is the U.S. midterm elections, and if the Republican Party, which Trump belongs to, loses the majority of votes, it will directly affect the implementation of policies during the last two years of Trump's term. For example, in 2022, Biden faced losses in the midterm elections, resulting in a split Congress, which made him a 'lame duck.' This has also contributed to the systemic risk of Bitcoin that I mentioned.

In summary, we need to hold Bitcoin until the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of next year, there will likely be two interest rate cuts, stimulating the U.S. economy in 2026. Therefore, our target exit date is roughly before April 2026.