On Friday, the A-share market experienced a dramatic drop without warning, with over 4,500 stocks turning red and a massive trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan crashing down, filling the market with panic. The sudden outbreak of the Middle East conflict became the fuse for this large drop, as geopolitical risks intensified and investors' risk-averse sentiment rapidly heightened.
However, data reveals that this is not a true crash, but rather a carefully orchestrated 'trap' by the main players. Firstly, the banking sector unusually led the decline, which is very uncommon as bank stocks are typically market stabilizers; their drop further fueled market panic. Meanwhile, northbound capital was buying against the trend, seemingly spotting opportunities overlooked by the market.
During this storm, the Shanghai Composite Index repeatedly tested the 20-day moving average, a crucial support level that faced multiple tests yet remained intact, suggesting that there is a force quietly maintaining market stability. The 20-day moving average is an important reference in technical analysis, and a drop below it could trigger greater panic in the market.
As panic selling surged, institutional positions appeared densely on the limit-up board for oil and military sectors. At the moment of highest market panic, institutions were actively positioning themselves in these sectors that benefited from geopolitical conflicts. Behind this series of contradictory signals could be the main players' classic operation of taking advantage of negative news to harvest retail investors' chips. They exploited market panic to create a selling illusion, forcing retail investors to surrender their shares, while they took the opportunity to accumulate stocks at low prices, waiting for market sentiment to stabilize before pushing the trend reversal.