BTC falls below $104,000, ETH plummets over 10%, is it time to buy the dip?

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant changes, with BTC at one point dropping below the $104,000 mark, and ETH experiencing a daily decline of over 10%, attracting heightened market attention. Following this round of sharp declines, the future direction of the market has become a hot topic among investors.

1. Analysis of Reasons for Market Plunge

Leverage squeeze triggers a chain reaction

From derivatives data, it can be seen that there was a substantial accumulation of long leverage around the $105,000 mark for BTC, and the staking lending rate for ETH also rose simultaneously. As prices fell, over $580 million in long contracts were forcibly liquidated, resulting in a significant increase in selling pressure in the short term.

Macroeconomic sentiment disturbance

The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting released a 'hawkish' signal, leading to a rebound in the dollar index, which puts pressure on risk assets, with some funds retreating from the crypto market to seek safety.

Demand for technical adjustments

In the previous two months, BTC has accumulated a rise of over 25%, but ETH failed to effectively break through the $3,000 resistance level, leading to a market demand for a correction to repair overbought indicators.

2. Key Support Levels and Market Outlook

BTC: $105,800 as the dividing line for bulls and bears

If BTC can close above $105,800 today, the short-term upward trend will continue, and it may once again challenge the $110,000 high within 48 hours. If it drops below $104,350, it may test $102,000 (20-day moving average), however, long-term holders have not loosened their positions, and a significant drop may be viewed as a 'buying opportunity'.

ETH: End of washout, institutions quietly accumulate

The current price of ETH has retraced to the key support zone of $2,400. On-chain data shows that whale addresses have accumulated over 400,000 ETH in the past 24 hours. In the derivatives market, the funding rate for ETH perpetual contracts has turned negative, with shorts excessively concentrated, making it easy to trigger a short squeeze. It is expected that from the end of June to July, ETH prices may rise to $3,300 - $3,700, and even potentially break new highs.

Each significant correction in the crypto market is a test of investor sentiment and strategy. When most retail investors panic sell due to the sharp decline, experienced investors are quietly positioning themselves. While history does not simply repeat itself, the patterns in market cycles often bear similarities. This recent plunge in ETH and BTC may be nurturing the opportunity for the next round of upswing.