I. Technical Analysis: Bull-Bear Strangulation Enters a Critical Phase
▶ Key Point Survival Battle
- 0.00001260 Support Triple Strike:
Bears have tested the market three times, each dip causing over 5% volatility, the current price of 0.00001257 is close to the lifeline
- Death Cross of Moving Averages:
The 20-hour moving average (0.00001285) crosses below the 50-hour moving average (0.00001310), forming a "Hanging Man Pattern"; historically, after breaking down, it has fallen over 15% within 72 hours
- Funding Rate Collapse:
Perpetual contract rate plummeted from +0.03% to -0.05%, significantly reducing the cost of short positions, leading to $120 million in long liquidations within 3 hours
II. Conditions for Breaking the Bull-Bear Stalemate: The decisive hand lies here
✅ Three Essential Elements for Bullish Reversal (All are necessary)
1. Break 0.00001291: Must close above this level on the 1-hour candlestick, and trading volume exceeds 5 billion SHIB
2. Recapture the Psychological Level of 0.000013: This level has 30% trapped positions, breaking through requires large whale buying
3. RSI Breaks Above 45 Resistance: Current hourly RSI is 38, needs to rebound with volume to confirm strength above 45
❌ Bearish Strangulation Path (Triggers on Breakdown)
1. Phase One: Break below 0.00001260, triggering a wave of liquidations (estimated $50 million in long liquidations)
2. Phase Two: Test the monthly low support at 0.00001200
3. Ultimate Target: 0.00001120 (200-day moving average position), losing this level will trigger panic selling
III. On-chain Data: Whales Are Setting Traps
- Surge in Exchange Inventory:
In the past 24 hours, 80 trillion SHIB (approximately $68 million) has flowed in, reaching a new high since January 2025, ample ammunition for selling pressure
- False Breakout Historical Replays:
In the past 3 months, there have been 7 instances of the "Double Bottom Pattern," of which 5 were bull traps; the last one (May 18) saw a drop of 22% after breaking down
- Buying Pressure Exhausted:
Above 0.00001300, there is only $20 million in buying pressure; 800 BTC (approximately $86 million) can create a false breakout appearance
IV. Practical Strategies (Divided into Three Player Types)
1. Spot Holders
- If it breaks 0.00001260, immediately stop loss on 30% of positions, place remaining positions at 0.00001200 for averaging down
- If it recaptures 0.00001300, can increase position by 20%, targeting 0.00001450
2. Futures Traders
- Enter short positions: Gradually open positions in the range of 0.00001285-0.00001291, stop loss at 0.00001305
- Take profit in two steps: Close 50% at 0.00001260, close all at 0.00001230 if broken
- Leverage Control: Within 3 times, avoid liquidation risk
3. Observers
- Right-side Signal: Volume breakout above 0.00001331 (needs daily trading volume over 10 billion)
- Safe Buying Point: After breaking, if it retraces to 0.00001300 and holds, can follow up with light positions
Ultimate Warning
SHIB's current volatility is 92%, three times that of BTC! This is not an ordinary bull-bear contest, but a psychological battle between institutions and retail investors.
Remember: At the position of 0.00001260, hesitation means giving away money, and taking chances means being on the receiving end. If you want to dance on a tightrope, prepare a parachute first—strict stop losses are essential to survive and see the next market cycle!
$SHIB
