Bitcoin [BTC] has been hovering above $100,000 this month, rising only 1.29%. However, with billions of dollars in options expiring, this calm may soon end.
AMBCrypto analysis indicates that while the probability of a significant decline is high, some investors are trying to resist the downward pressure.
The maximum pain is $107,000 - but BTC is already below it.
About $3.04 billion in BTC options will expire today, with a put/call ratio of 0.95 and a maximum pain price of $107,000.
A put/call ratio below 1, as in this case, indicates that more traders in the market are holding long (call) positions.
However, Bitcoin's price is significantly below this maximum pain level of $104,682, creating a notable gap.
This means that traders who occupy a significant portion of the nominal value may suffer substantial losses, while short sellers will profit.
Typically, this situation prompts traders to open more short positions to hedge losses, while others may choose to take profits.
AMBCrypto analysis confirms that this trend has started. In the past 24 hours, open interest (OI) in options has surged significantly.
Open interest (OI) grew by 3.88% to $46.06 billion, indicating that more contracts are being opened. Meanwhile, trading volume surged to $7.06 billion, an increase of 107.64%.
With gold prices falling and $3.04 billion in contracts about to expire, the surge in these two indicators suggests that more traders are inclined to sell.
$422 million has been liquidated!
The futures market also shows clear bearish sentiment, which partially reflects the situation in the options market. In this case, the number of sellers has increased.
Liquidation data is one-sided. Longs lost $422.89 million in 24 hours, while shorts only lost $28.63 million.
Additionally, the long/short ratio is 0.929, firmly below 1, confirming that sellers are dominant.
Can traditional investors and spot investors save Bitcoin?
Interestingly, spot investors are not backing down. In the past 24 hours, $150.7 million worth of BTC flowed into exchanges, totaling over $651 million for the week.
Traditional investors are also taking action.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin worth $86 million has been purchased through several Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a total purchase amount reaching $982 million over the past three days.
These large-scale purchases typically have a positive impact on market sentiment and may ultimately lead to supply shortages.
However, before the options expire, a significant reversal in the market seems unlikely - especially a $3,000 rebound in Bitcoin's price.
If this reversal does not occur, Bitcoin may decline further.