As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, Bitcoin fell today (13th) and briefly dropped below the $104,000 mark. Analysts warned that as market sentiment turns conservative, coupled with a weakening technical outlook, Bitcoin may further test the critical $100,000 level.
According to CoinGecko market data, Bitcoin was priced at $104,064 at the time of writing, down 4.4% in the past 24 hours, with a low of $103,081; Ethereum's decline was even more severe, dropping over 9% in a single day to $2,496, as market risk aversion surged and funds accelerated their exit from risk assets.
The trigger for this wave of market panic came from a shocking international news story—Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. According to reports from the Associated Press, explosions were heard in Tehran, with sources indicating that the Israeli military targeted Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure; Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz subsequently announced a national state of emergency and confirmed a 'preemptive strike' against Iran.
Nick Ruck, Research Director at LVRG, analyzed: 'As geopolitical conflicts escalate, investors are accelerating their shift towards traditional safe-haven assets, and the market expects cryptocurrencies to face pressure in the short term.'
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. analyzed that the market is currently at a 'soft reversal point', which is a typical phase correction pattern.
Axel Adler Jr. cited data indicating that the proportion of open futures contracts shows that this wave of Bitcoin's decline is accompanied by long positions taking profits at resistance levels, while short positions are actively increasing. He added that:
This is a typical soft reversal point following an uptrend: as long as the funding rate remains positive and open interest decreases, Bitcoin is expected to experience short-term corrections or consolidate below $108,000.
On the other hand, from the perspective of historical market 'fractal patterns', Bitcoin may be replaying the trajectory from January this year: at that time, the price rose from $91,700 to $102,700, followed by several weeks of correction.
Bitcoin earlier this week rose from $100,500 to $110,000, showing a structural pattern similar to that time. If the fractal pattern holds, the market may face a deeper correction, potentially testing the $100,000 integer level. The so-called 'fractal' refers to the market exhibiting highly similar price change patterns under similar liquidity and structural conditions.
According to technical charts, the following three key signals are currently repeating:
The price broke through the descending trend line and completed a structural bullish reversal on the daily chart, absorbing the low liquidity from the past 3–4 weeks;
Although Bitcoin reached a short-term high, it failed to break through the previous high (i.e., the historical high);
The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) fell below 50 and bounced back, but faced resistance again near 60.
If this technical pattern continues to develop, Bitcoin may quickly retest the $100,000 integer support level, which is also a liquidity-intensive area; if it fails to hold, market confidence could be further shaken.
Conversely, if Bitcoin can regain stability and maintain levels above $108,000, there remains a chance to challenge highs again, further confirming the continuation of the bullish structure.
