#以色列伊朗冲突 🚨 Conflict Erupts: Israel Launches "Full-Scale War" Level Strikes

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched multiple rounds of airstrikes against Iran, codenamed "Lion's Rise," targeting facilities including the Natanz nuclear site, the Revolutionary Guard headquarters, missile factories, and the residences of military leaders. Iranian nuclear facilities caught fire, resulting in the deaths of at least 10 nuclear scientists and several senior generals (such as Revolutionary Guard Commander Salami and Chief of Staff Bagheri), with severe explosions occurring in the capital Tehran and other areas. Iran immediately fired over 100 drones at Israel, which declared a national emergency and intercepted them.

⚔️ Israel's Strategic Objectives

Destroy Nuclear Capability: Long-planned strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to weaken its uranium enrichment capacity (Natanz being a key target).

Obstruct US-Iran Negotiations: The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran was scheduled for June 15, and Israel feared that an agreement would allow Iran to "return to power."

Netanyahu's Political Maneuvering: Domestic pressures from the Gaza ceasefire and a crisis in the ruling coalition necessitate a hardline approach to shift the focus outward.

🔥 Iran's Response and Regional Risks

Vow of Retaliation: Supreme Leader Khamenei stated there would be "severe punishment," and the armed forces declared "endless retaliation," potentially targeting Israeli nuclear facilities or US bases in the Middle East.

Constraints: Iran's economy is hampered by sanctions, and allies Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened. Full-scale war could lead to domestic unrest, which may prompt a "precise retaliatory calculation."

US Role: Israel claims the actions were "fully coordinated" with the US, but US officials deny involvement; Trump warned Iran that the "next wave of strikes would be more brutal," suggesting tacit approval of Israeli actions.

🌍 International Impact and Outlook

Geopolitical Crisis: Oil prices surged by 13% in one day, gold rose by 1.8%, and US stock futures fell by 2%. The UN, China, and several other countries called for restraint, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE condemned Israel's violation of sovereignty.

Risk of Escalation: Attacks on nuclear facilities touch upon Iran's red lines, and continued Israeli military actions over several days or an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could ignite a full-scale war.

The current situation is a flashpoint in the Israel-Iran "security dilemma," with both sides viewing each other as existential threats. Netanyahu's "point of no return" declaration and Iran's vow of revenge push the Middle East into an unknown peril, where any miscalculation could trigger a chain reaction.