PAXG Long and Short Battle Day!

Key Technical Signals

Triangle Convergence Pattern: PAXG current price 3446.67 USDT, hourly chart shows a descending triangle, with bottom support at 3330 USDT being tested repeatedly. MA7 and MA30 form a golden cross but with insufficient volume, beware of false breakouts.

MACD Momentum Diminishing: DIF (25.86) and DEA (19.18) are narrowing, the red momentum bars have shortened for 4 consecutive hours, if DIF crosses below DEA it will trigger a bearish signal.

Volume Crisis: Trading volume decreased by 32%, MA5 moving average line crosses below MA10, a rebound needs volume support.

News Explosive Points

Federal Reserve Hawkish Pressure on Gold: The dot plot suggests only one rate cut in 2025 (expected two), spot gold drops to $2290, directly pressuring PAXG.

On-chain Whales Selling Pressure: An anonymous address transferred 182,000 PAXG (about 630 million U) to Binance, creating the largest single transfer record this year.

Funding Rate Turns Negative: PAXG contract rate -0.015%, bears dominate the derivatives market for the first time.

Personal Opinion: Bull Trap

The “Wolf is Coming” signal is clear!

Bearish Logic: ① Gold daily chart shows a top divergence, real yield on U.S. debt rises to 1.83% pressuring gold prices; ② PAXG open interest surges by 47% but price stagnates, the main force may take the opportunity to offload; ③ RSI top divergence, 3340-3380 USDT becomes a killing zone for bulls and bears.

Bullish Defense Line: If 3330 USDT holds with increased volume, combined with CME gold net long positions increasing by 11%, it may trigger a pulse rebound.

Operational Strategy: Use 3350 USDT as the watershed, break down and short (target 3280), if stabilizing above 3380, try long with a light position, leverage ≤ 5x.

Deduction: Probability of a three-day plunge > 70%

Triple Pressure Chain:

News Double Kill: Federal Reserve accelerating balance sheet reduction + Gold ETF net outflow for 17 consecutive days;

Technical Death Triangle: MA30 (3327) and BOLL middle line (3349) form pressure, MACD underwater death cross countdown;

On-chain Selling Pressure Materializes: Among the PAXG transferred to exchanges by whales, 23% has sell orders placed at 3440-3460.