Why is 2025 said to be a major bull market for cryptocurrencies? My judgment on the BTC trend is that the traditional four-year bull-bear cycle is no longer in place; instead, it is replaced by a super slow bull market with a 10-year cycle.
1. Two large holders, MicroStrategy and ETF, collectively hold 1 million Bitcoins. From 110,000 it has dropped to over 70,000, and 95% of their BTC is still held, clearly indicating a long-term holding intention to combat inflation. This is the main reason why it won't drop below 70,000 in the short term.
2. All technical indicators support a 50% drop in BTC. Altcoins are at ankle level, and BTC isn't moving down; if it doesn't drop, it must rise— the bull market isn't over yet.
3. BlackRock's CEO said the next 10 years will be the net adoption period for Bitcoin. Institutional holdings of Bitcoin are extremely low, averaging below 1%, and they are slowly accumulating during dips, which aligns with the inference that the bull market is still ongoing. 4. BTC's gains in this bull market are small, and during corrections, it naturally drops less. This is the kind of Bitcoin that Wall Street hopes to see, resembling a slow bull like the US stock market.
5. Bitcoin should see 200,000 to 250,000 this year or next. 6. The essence of the altcoin bull market is purely driven by funds; investors profit from Bitcoin, sell at high prices, and with nowhere for the funds to go, they all flood into low-performing, low-supply altcoins and new coin markets. However, this time when Bitcoin rose to 110,000, the profits were less than before, so the funds flowing into altcoins were also reduced, resulting in last year's altcoins making a brief surge before entering a bear market.
7. It is foreseeable that when Bitcoin rises to 150,000 to 200,000, funds will continue to flow into altcoins after high-position liquidation, driving altcoins to form the high-multiple bull markets of the past.
