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Emergency Simulation: The Global Shockwaves and Response Strategies of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz
I. The 'Disruption Crisis' of Energy Lifeline
Oil Supply Cliff
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 38% of global oil transportation (21 million barrels per day), a blockade would lead to:
Brent crude oil prices may break $200 per barrel within 48 hours (Goldman Sachs forecast model)
European refineries will face a 30% raw material gap, and diesel prices may skyrocket by 50%
Alternative Route Analysis:
Saudi East-West oil pipeline's maximum capacity is only 6.5 million barrels/day, unable to fill the gap
Russian Arctic shipping capacity increased to 2 million barrels/day, but transit time increases by 15 days
Natural Gas Chain Reaction
Oil Supply Cliff
The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 38% of global oil transportation (21 million barrels per day), a blockade would lead to:
Brent crude oil prices may break $200 per barrel within 48 hours (Goldman Sachs forecast model)
European refineries will face a 30% raw material gap, and diesel prices may skyrocket by 50%
Alternative Route Analysis:
Saudi East-West oil pipeline's maximum capacity is only 6.5 million barrels/day, unable to fill the gap
Russian Arctic shipping capacity increased to 2 million barrels/day, but transit time increases by 15 days
Natural Gas Chain Reaction
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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