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🧭 Macro & market structure insights

Bitcoin volatility surges → potential volatility center adjustment

Glassnode data shows that on June 12, BTC's realized volatility rose by 15%, indicating that market price fluctuations are increasing (blockchain.news).

Meanwhile, net inflows of 12,000 BTC to exchanges reflect that institutions or large holders are adjusting their positions (blockchain.news).

This round of volatility is mainly triggered by 'liquidity enhancement', with large funds entering and unexpected macro factors prompting a reconstruction of price logic.

Changes in long positions at Bitfinex exchange

We compare a set of data; last time BitFinex's long position dropped sharply from a high to a low, BTC price was around 95,000.

This time, long positions have decreased continuously, even dropping below the last bottom, while the coin price remains around 103,000. Even with geopolitical uncertainties, the price stays above 100,000.

We can see that even though large BTC holders are reducing their holdings and are below the last total holding amount, the overall price is still above before. This indicates that someone has been buying to push the price up; as for who will buy at high positions? — Incremental funds and long-term investors.

📊 On-chain flow & hotspot highlights

🚀 ETH daily derivatives trading volume surpasses $110 billion

Daily trading volume skyrocketed to approximately $111 billion, surpassing BTC's $87.5 billion, indicating that leveraged players are focusing on the ETH sector (thecurrencyanalytics.com).

🐳 Long-term holders are not in a hurry to take profits → indicating strong confidence

Glassnode report indicates that although LTHs are making daily profits of up to $930 million, the overall proportion is still rising; combined with low implied and realized volatility, this 'high profit + increased positions' state is rare.

ETH dual-track risk breakdown

ETH sector is in a high-level correction, caution is needed for liquidations of $300-500 million contracts; however, the overall trend remains robust. CoinGlass data shows that approximately $337 million was liquidated in the last 24 hours, with heavy exposure for ETH longs (cryptoslate.com).

🏗️ Technical drive and ecological construction

⚙️ Polygon releases 'Gigagas' scalability roadmap

Three-phase plan: Q3 reaches 1,000 TPS, increases to 5,000 TPS by the end of 2025, and breaks through 100,000 TPS after 2026; Gas fee target < $0.001, integrated with RWA and payment implementation.

If successful, Polygon will become an important infrastructure for high-frequency payments and on-chain stable financial platforms.

🧠 Crypto undercurrents · Strategy breakdown

1️⃣ Capital structure deeply shifts from BTC to ETH

- ETH derivatives trading volume has surpassed BTC, with strong capital chasing and replenishing; BTC remains stable, but trading depth is limited, reflecting a rise in ETH popularity.

2️⃣ Thursday evening's Israeli airstrike on Iran radiated into the crypto market, coinciding with the drop in Bitcoin prices, during a period when market prices were at historical highs. War increases uncertainty and may lead to rising oil prices, pushing up inflation, causing some investors to temporarily exit while some short-term speculators enter to short.

However, since we are still in a bull market structure long-term, short-term dips remain our buying opportunities.

3️⃣ Technical rhythm overlaying ecological implementation trends

- The structure of Polygon/Gigagas and the ETH sector is enhanced, with RWA, DeFi, and real payment use cases becoming the resonance marks of funds; short-term volatility still needs attention, long-term ecological underlying logic is clear.