$BTC June 13 Market Analysis:
Stop complaining about the market being difficult; in the end, it's just you getting stuck in a rut! The market hasn't changed at all; the difficulty lies in your fixation on imagined surges while ignoring the opportunities right under your nose. Immediately remove the words 'I thought' from your trading system, and honestly operate according to structural signals; I guarantee you will see results!
Looking at the long term, the weekly chart shows that BTC hasn't changed since May 22; it's still a normal pullback within a bullish trend, with several support lines clearly visible below. Although don't expect an immediate reversal, the downtrend is clearly slowing. At this point, playing a bit of 'buying the dip after a big drop and running away after a big rise' in the short term is most appropriate.
In the medium term, looking at the daily chart, we are currently in a normal pullback within a bullish trend, with clear support zones below. But pay attention to the 4-hour chart, as the price has already hit the 250-day moving average support! Be cautious here: a large bearish candle indicates that selling pressure hasn't been fully released, but the moving average support is still very much in place. At such times, it's easy to see a broken retest or a sluggish consolidation while waiting for the market to choose a direction.
The short-term is more direct; after the effective drop below the 250-day moving average in the morning at the 1-hour level, the second bottom testing has directly produced oversold indicators. This rebound is simply about correcting the oversold condition and confirming the validity of the break. To put it plainly—don't expect a big surge; after a low-level consolidation, continuing to drop is more probable!
The current trading strategy can be summed up in one sentence: the long-term bullish trend hasn't changed, but the short-term has entered a bear-dominated rebound phase. Combined, this means it’s only suitable to play 'buying the dip after hitting a new low' in the short term; chasing high positions? Don't even think about it!
Specific levels to remember:
Upper pressure zone: 105588-106120 (don't think about breaking through this range; if you hit it, short it)
Lower support zone: 102077-100766 (1:2 risk-reward ratio for a quick rebound; be swift)
Second support zone: 99490-96570 (this range hasn't been reached yet, but you can place limit orders in advance, also with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio)
Today's market structure isn't pretty; expand your trading points and don't force trades! This isn't the time for huge profits; it's the phase of preserving capital while waiting for certain opportunities!
Still don't know how to operate in such a market? Follow me, I'll provide strategies; execution depends on you!
