June 13 Midday Analysis:
Recent market trends have shown a clear downtrend. Since reaching a high on June 10, the market has entered a downward channel, with the decline particularly pronounced in recent days. From a technical analysis perspective, the classic bearish three soldiers pattern and the formation of a top distribution pattern on the candlestick chart have doubly confirmed the downward pressure on the market. The price faced strong resistance near 104000 in the short term, and according to the current trend projection, it is highly likely to continue to test lower levels, with the support level around 100305 becoming a key defense line. If this support level is breached, the market may face a deeper adjustment.
From the 1-hour candlestick chart, the downward trend is very prominent. The Bollinger Bands are continuously expanding, and the price remains under pressure, operating below the middle band, which fully highlights the overwhelming advantage of the bearish forces. Additionally, observing the MACD indicator, the DIF line and DEA line have formed a death cross below the zero axis and are continuing to diverge downwards, suggesting strong bearish momentum and indicating that the downward trend may persist in the short term.
On a macro level, multiple adverse factors are impacting the cryptocurrency market. The military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, sharply increasing geopolitical risks; the Federal Reserve has yet to release any signals for rate cuts, tightening market liquidity expectations; coupled with various black swan events occurring frequently, market risk aversion sentiment continues to rise. These factors combined have put significant pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin has entered a top adjustment phase on the daily chart, with the price breaking below the middle band, which is a dividing line between bulls and bears, and has consecutively closed three bearish candles; on the four-hour level, after five consecutive bearish candles, there was a brief rebound with a doji bullish candle, but the market then produced another three consecutive bearish candles, with bearish forces continuing to be released. From a smaller time frame perspective, the market's weak stance is unlikely to change, and the price is expected to test last week's low at around 100300 again. Ethereum's movement is similar to Bitcoin's, and it will also test support at around 2379 in the short term.
Considering both technical and macro analyses, the current market atmosphere is heavily bearish. It is recommended that investors remain cautious, with short-term trading strategies focused on short positions, closely monitoring the break of key support levels, adjusting positions in a timely manner, and avoiding potential risks.
Bitcoin: Short near 105200-105500, looking down to 102500-103000
Ethereum: Short near 2545-2570, looking down to 2420-2450
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