📉 $BTC（2025-06-13 08:50）｜Long and Short Trend Index: 32 / 100 (Short-term Weakening, Entering Risk Release)

Multiple cycles have shown synchronous technical breakdowns, with short-term emotional declines dominating. The medium to long-term structure has not been completely damaged, and the weekly trend needs to continue to observe subsequent repairs. Short-term operations should focus on defense, and do not blindly catch falling knives; strictly control position risk.

🔹 Multi-Cycle K-Line Trend Judgment:

15-minute chart: Rapid breakdown, short-term bearish momentum, MACD death cross significantly expanding, RSI 24.6, extremely oversold;

1-hour chart: Breaking downwards, continuous volume increase leading to drops, MACD downward spread, RSI 21.4, technically severely oversold;

4-hour chart: Breaking below the lower edge of the oscillation range, MACD death cross expanding, RSI 28.5, bears dominate;

Daily chart: Short-term pullback is obvious, MACD golden cross weakens, histogram narrows, RSI 46.5, breaking below neutral support;

Weekly chart: Medium-term upward momentum slows, MACD high-level dulling, RSI 61.3, still maintains a relatively strong pattern but is under short-term pressure.

📈 Technical Indicator Observation:

MACD: Short-cycle death cross expanding, medium-cycle death cross initially forming, long-cycle golden cross high-level convergence;

RSI: Short-term quickly entering oversold, daily chart breaking below 50, weekly chart slightly retreating from a high position;

Moving Average System: Short-term MA7, MA25 rapidly weakening, some cycles forming death crosses, MA99 still maintains upward trend;

Trading Volume: Short-term significantly increased selling pressure, concentrated selling pressure released, funding risk aversion sentiment rising.

🌐 Macro News Summary (Latest):

1. Market risk aversion intensified before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a stronger dollar causing short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin (Source: Bloomberg, June 12);

2. Large U.S. institutions have concentrated on reducing BTC long positions in the futures market, with some CTAs closing positions for risk aversion (Source: CME, June 12);

3. Binance temporarily increased the leverage margin ratio for some large clients, intensifying panic selling in the short term (Source: Binance Announcement, June 13, early morning);

4. ETH staking locked-in scale continues to reach new highs, but overall capital flow has not provided effective support for BTC (Source: Glassnode, June 13).