🚨 In-depth analysis: Is the current bull market a 'Trump hard pull market' or a real bull market?

This round of BTC rise indeed has many abnormalities; market liquidity has not significantly increased, and the Federal Reserve has not lowered interest rates, yet the price has soared without almost any pullback. This trend is very unusual and may be controlled politically or financially. Here is the key analysis:

📉 Why it might be a 'false bull'?

1️⃣ Liquidity has not improved, the rise lacks fundamental support

  • The Federal Reserve has still not lowered interest rates, and market funds have not flowed in significantly, but BTC has forcibly broken through historical highs.

  • This rise seems more like a concentrated push by funds rather than natural market demand.

2️⃣ Trump frequently calls for trades, political motives are questionable

  • Trump has recently repeatedly supported cryptocurrency publicly, even calling himself the 'Crypto President'.

  • Coincidentally, with U.S. debt maturing in June, he may need to create a 'prosperity illusion' to attract funds.

3️⃣ Altcoins stagnate, market heat is unhealthy

  • A real bull market, altcoins will rotate and explode (like the market in November 2023).

  • However, this time BTC's blood-sucking rise and the weakness of altcoins indicate that funds have not fully entered the cryptocurrency market.

4️⃣ Technical abnormality: Almost no pullback, straight rise

  • A healthy bull market will have periodic pullbacks, but this time BTC has almost gone straight up, resembling artificial control.

🔻 First type: Fake rally followed by a crash (114000 → Big drop)

  • BTC may continue to be pushed up to around 114,000, attracting more FOMO funds, then suddenly crash, dropping below 70,000 or even lower.

🔻 Second type: Direct peak drop (111900 → Crash)

  • If market funds fail to follow the trend, it may directly peak around 119,000, then initiate a deep pullback, targeting below 60,000.

⚠️ Key observation points:

  • If BTC shows significant stagnation or long upper shadows around 110,000, it could be a peak signal.

  • If altcoins still do not follow the rise, then the probability of a 'false bull' is extremely high.

🔄 Low probability situation: Real bull?

If the market subsequently shows:
✅ Federal Reserve suddenly lowers interest rates, releasing liquidity
✅ Altcoins start to fully catch up
✅ BTC continues to break through 130,000 after a pullback
Then it might really be a continuation of the bull market. But at present, this possibility is low.



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