News-driven factors
Regulatory risk transmission
The US SEC has categorized tokens listed by Binance (including LINK) as subjects of litigation, leading to institutional sell pressure. Coupled with a new proposal from the US House of Representatives to restrict stablecoin issuance, expectations of tightening liquidity are impacting the DEFI sector.
On-chain anomaly warning
Detected that a certain early miner address transferred 700,000 LINK (approximately $9.8 million) to Binance before the crash, triggering a market sell-off. On-chain leverage liquidation data shows that during the crash, over 4 million long positions were liquidated.
Key technical breakdown
TD sequence failure
After the chart continuously shows 3 sets of '9' selling signals, the price still remains sideways, consuming the patience of bulls. Today it broke the key TD support level of $14.10, triggering programmatic stop-loss orders.
Three-wave downward structure
The daily line forms a descending three-wave: April high of 18.00 (peak in the chart) → June support at 14.10 → current area of $12.50. Volume indicators show increased selling during the decline, and MACD histogram is moving downward below the zero axis.
Future market analysis and operational strategy
Key positions in the cycle are catalysts for long and short logic. Short-term resistance is $13.80 (Fibonacci 38.2%). If it fails to recover 14.10 within 48 hours, it will continue to probe down to 11.50. CME Bitcoin options expiration volatility. Mid-term strong support is at the psychological level of $10.00. Weekly RSI enters the oversold zone (currently at 34), indicating a technical rebound demand. Chainlink CCIP protocol new cooperation disclosure. Trend reversal signal. Trading volume shrinks to 70% of the 20-day average. Bottoming signal. Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision.
Operation suggestion: Currently, it is not advisable to catch falling knives; wait patiently: ① Daily line forms a long lower shadow; ② TD sequence shows '13' count + volume divergence. Breakout above 14.10 can enter on the right side, target 15.80.
Core conclusion: Today's drop is a triple resonance of 'regulatory black swan + on-chain sell pressure + technical breakdown'. A short-term downward trend is established, but oversold rebound momentum is accumulating; pay close attention to the historical support strength in the $10-11.5 area. A policy shift may become the core engine for reversal.
Opportunities are fleeting, a pullback is imminent, bottom fishing for spot purchases, altcoins are waiting for you to reap huge profits! Doubling is not a dream, tap my avatar to follow me, let's enjoy the bull market feast together!