$ETH Evening Thoughts:
I didn't expect that the second contract could still hold the position of 2700. I hope it doesn't continue to fall.
Let's leave some hope for those holding counterfeit spot positions! Otherwise, it's really just giving you great hope every time, but it quickly shatters, leading to immense disappointment.
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Speaking with the chart: The white arrow on the 4-hour chart for the second contract indicates that this bullish candle, which created a new high for the second contract on the 4-hour level, has been completely broken. If the second contract continues to fall and breaks below the yellow box on the right side, it's over. The position of 2736 is a critical neckline for the second contract; if it breaks, we will look around 2600!
If it doesn't break, there might still be room for relief.
For the second contract, if it breaks through 2753 with volume, it's a signal to chase long positions for a rebound; if it breaks below 2735 with volume, it's a signal to chase short positions. Pay attention to changes in volume and set proper stop losses.
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If the second contract can break through 2753 and stabilize, it shows that there is still hope, and we can look up to the positions of 2783-2800.
If it falls below 2736 on the 4-hour chart and cannot quickly recover, it indicates that the second contract is weak and will likely adjust downward to look at 2691-2650-2603. As long as it doesn't break below 2650, there is still a bit of opportunity for the second contract.
Continuing to look at the chart: The triangle convergence on the hourly chart for the second contract has reached its end and is about to choose a direction.
If it breaks below the lower boundary of this triangle convergence, then the second contract will go down directly, and you should not hold any expectations for it anymore. If it goes down, we don't know how long it will take to consolidate before it can come back up.
Tonight at 8:30, there will be PPI data released. If tonight's PPI data is as good as last night's CPI data, it might stop the decline; conversely, if it falls, it will be smoother. End of meeting.
