$ETH Evening Thoughts:
The key support of 2550 for the second cake has once again been broken. It just went up, and before it could even get warm, it came back down again. The second cake is really difficult, every step is a hurdle.
Now 2550 has turned into resistance for the second cake. Let’s play around this position! Up, down, up, down—if you’re not tired of it, just keep messing around!
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Speaking with pictures: The Fibonacci 1:1 retracement target for the second cake at the hourly level is 2245, which is just over 200 dollars away from the current price. A glamorous turn, and it could reach that. If it really gets there, what will you do? Will you buy spot, or cut losses on your long positions, or add to your position, or enter long with nothing in hand for the long term? Whatever you do, be prepared for the worst.
Don’t think the second cake won’t reach that level; did you ever think it would drop from 4000 to 1300? Did you not think that? The second cake will always land a fatal blow when you let your guard down.
For the second cake, a volume breakout at 2526 means chasing longs, and a volume break below 2517 means chasing shorts. Pay attention to changes in volume and set stop losses.
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If the second cake breaks above 2550 at the hourly level, we can look upwards to 2586-2614. Only if it stabilizes at 2550 can we look towards that level, which is crucial.
If it breaks below 2502 at the 4-hour level, it should retrace down to 2439-2380. If 2502 breaks down and does not come back, the second cake will start to weaken.
Continuing to look at the chart: the second cake at the 2-hour level must break the neckline marked in the chart at 2507 to form an M-top.
Otherwise, it cannot be established. If the M-top at the 2-hour level is formed and moves down, its power is not small. If 2550 does not come back, it is definitely quite dangerous. Meeting adjourned.