News background
1️⃣Manufacturing PMI and services PMI have decreased (there are some questions regarding the latter figure) - these two factors contribute to the rate decrease. PCE, as we remember, is stable. The number of jobs has increased (this supports keeping the rate), and non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday - this is also very important. Oil has stalled for now, but it is likely to continue rising (a potential plus for inflation).
2️⃣Tariff story. New tariffs on aluminum and steel. Extensions for China and the EU regarding the entire set of tariffs are still in effect - this will be one of the main topics in July-August. Negotiations with India start today.
3️⃣Conflicts. More or less.
4️⃣Expectations for the Fed's rate in June remain unchanged. It’s no longer 99% as it was on Monday, but still very high - 97%.
Technique.
Bitcoin is acting up and is actually stuck in a small ascending channel on lower timeframes. Let's see what happens next.
1️⃣There are no clear fundamental data for a beginning of growth yet. I still believe that we will continue to decline, possibly in a nasty and slow manner. The first target, in this sense, is the most modest - 103,350 - the middle of the last flat before ATH. From there, there is a chance to bounce back up to the level of ema64 on h4 (the blue average on the chart) to that area where it will be at that moment (likely, approximately the upper boundary of the average flat on the picture).
2️⃣The most likely retracement, in my opinion, is down to 100,700, and as a variation of it - to ema64 on D1 (the green average on the picture). Possibly, on some news like PPI and CPI that will come out next week when the Fed's plans become a bit clearer. For now, Powell justifiably fears the impact of tariffs on the economy, so the rate is unlikely to be lowered without significant necessity.
3️⃣A strong move down to 97,800 - rather an extreme option. I would attribute it to some sudden deterioration of everything. Having looked a bit at Grandpa Trump, one shouldn't completely dismiss such a scenario.
As I have already written, I still consider the second option - down to 100,700 - to be the most realistic. Perhaps not this week, but the option will remain promising, likely until the 18th of June (the Fed's meeting on the rate).
