The U.S. tariff policy is causing multidimensional economic shocks, creating a 'backlash effect' and a global chain reaction. Below is a core impact analysis:

Inflation Pressure and Economic Recession Risk

Tariff costs are progressively transmitted through the supply chain, driving up the prices of end products. The core CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in May, reaching a four-month high, and Yale University estimates that 'reciprocal tariffs' could lead to an annual loss of $1,300 to $5,400 for American households. Goldman Sachs predicts a 35% probability of U.S. economic recession, while the IMF warns that global GDP could shrink by 7%, leading to a 'stagflation' dilemma.

Supply Chain Disruption and Global Trade Shrinkage

The surge in goods at European ports due to tariffs has resulted in an increase in ship waiting times of 49%-77%, putting pressure on the global supply chain to restructure. The World Trade Organization predicts that global trade volume may decline by 1.5% by 2025, and the 'multiplier effect' of intermediate goods trade could raise supply chain costs by 40%, putting fields like precision manufacturing at risk of supply chain breaks.

Discrepancy Between U.S. Policy Goals and Reality

The Trump administration attempted to reduce the trade deficit through tariffs, but the Peterson Institute pointed out that 90% of tariff costs are borne by American companies and consumers. The effectiveness of manufacturing return is limited; tariffs imposed on China in 2018 led to the loss of 142,000 jobs in the U.S., and current policies may exacerbate industrial hollowing.

International Countermeasures and Impact on Multilateral Systems

The European Union is responding with a digital services tax, China has initiated a lawsuit in the World Trade Organization, and multiple countries are considering retaliatory measures. U.S. unilateralism undermines WTO rules and may trigger a global trade war, leading to a general decline in GDP growth rates of 0.5-1.8 percentage points across countries.

In summary, the U.S. tariff policy not only struggles to achieve trade balance but also raises domestic inflation, weakens industrial foundations, and exacerbates global economic recession risks. Historical experience shows that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930 led to a 66% plunge in global trade volume; current policies may repeat this historical mistake.