As of June 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuates around the range of $108,000-$110,000, with an intraday decline of about 1.24%, presenting a complex situation intertwined with short-term pullback pressure and mid-term bullish logic.

Contradictory Technical Signals

Short-term indicators show pullback risks: the MACD histogram is shortening, RSI is approaching 70 (overbought zone), KDJ is dulling at high levels, and a top divergence pattern is beginning to emerge on the 1-hour cycle, potentially leading to a retest of the key support level at $108,000. If this level breaks, it may further test the range of $106,200-$107,000. However, the mid-term trend remains strong, with the moving average system (MA5/MA10/MA20) maintaining a bullish arrangement, and the daily line operating above the red-green protective channel, supporting mid- to long-term bullish logic.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

Recent whale sell-offs and an increase in net inflow to exchanges (12,000 BTC) indicate that some investors are taking profits, with a decrease of $1 billion in futures open interest, leading to a seller-dominated short-term market. However, institutional capital continues to flow in (such as MicroStrategy increasing its holdings to 581,000 BTC) and favorable compliance policies (passage of the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act") provide support for the mid- to long-term.

Key Levels and Strategy

In the short term, pay attention to the effectiveness of the $108,000 support; if it stabilizes, consider light long positions with a stop loss set at $107,500; if it breaks, it may test the range of $106,500-$107,000. Resistance above is at $110,000-$111,078, and a breakout may challenge the technical strong resistance at $112,000.

Risks and Outlook

On a macro level, be wary of escalating Middle East tensions and fluctuations in U.S. CPI data that may trigger risk aversion; however, expectations for a Fed rate cut and institutional allocation demands remain potential positives. If it stabilizes above $112,000 in the mid- to long-term, the bull market target may point to $150,000. Investors need to balance position management to avoid excessive leverage.