This week, decisive signals have emerged simultaneously in the areas of U.S. economy and digital asset regulation. The latest CPI data for May was unexpectedly mild, significantly alleviating market concerns about inflation stickiness and opening up possibilities for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
At the same time, the (GENIUS Act) achieved a procedural breakthrough in the U.S. Senate, signaling that U.S. crypto regulation is moving from ambiguity to clarity.
Economic Signals: CPI Data Below Expectations, Rate Cut Expectations Rising
According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on June 11, the CPI for May 2025 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5%, and slightly up from 2.3% in April; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate recorded only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%. More notably, the core CPI (excluding food and energy price fluctuations) was particularly mild, rising by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%, with an annual rate of 2.8%, also lower than the market expectation of 2.9%. This marks the fourth consecutive month that core CPI has fallen below expectations, indicating that inflationary stickiness is gradually dissipating.
The market reacted swiftly and significantly to this data. After the data was released, S&P 500 futures shifted from a slight decline to an increase of 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slightly fell to 4.1%. On X platform, analysts generally believe that the moderate CPI data provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to further ease monetary policy. A well-known economist posted on X: 'The May CPI data indicates that inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target, and the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 85%.' Although the Trump administration's new tariff policy previously raised concerns about inflation, the May data indicates that the short-term impact of tariffs has yet to manifest. Food prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month, with egg prices dropping by 12.7% due to the waning impact of avian influenza, becoming a key factor in lowering CPI.
However, the core CPI annualized rate of 2.8% is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating that price pressures have not completely dissipated. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve may rely more on indicators like core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) in the coming months to decide whether to accelerate rate cuts in the second half of 2025. The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rate at the July meeting, but the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has significantly increased.
In response, Trump posted on social media: 'The CPI data has just been released, and the numbers are very good! The Federal Reserve should cut rates by a full 1%. This would significantly reduce interest payments on maturing debt. This is very important!'
Regulatory Progress: (GENIUS Act) Approaches Final Vote, Stablecoin Compliance Framework Taking Shape
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate has made breakthrough progress in the field of cryptocurrency regulation. On June 11, the Senate passed the procedural motion (cloture) for the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) by a vote of 68 to 30, officially opening debate in the full chamber and paving the way for a final vote as early as June 16. The voting results indicate a rare bipartisan consensus on stablecoin regulation, with 16 Democratic senators crossing party lines to vote in favor, highlighting broad support for the bill.
(GENIUS Act) aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, clarifying their legal status and excluding them from being classified as securities or commodities.
Supporters of the bill believe this framework will inject certainty into the stablecoin market, promote its widespread use in payments, and curb potential financial risks. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown stated on X: '(GENIUS Act) will ensure that the stablecoin market develops healthily under strong regulation, avoiding a repeat of the 2022 algorithmic stablecoin collapse.'
Opponents are concerned that the strict requirements for issuers in the bill may limit innovation space for small and medium-sized enterprises, further skewing market dominance towards large financial institutions.
One user commented: 'If the bill passes, USDC and USDT will enter a new era of compliance, but small players may be pushed out of the market.' Analysts expect that if the bill passes smoothly, the stablecoin market may see a new round of consolidation in early 2026, with compliant issuers gaining more trust from institutional investors.
Analysis and Outlook: Market Prospects Under Dual Tracks
The easing of inflation data and the clarification of stablecoin regulation together paint a picture of optimism coexisting with order. Positive developments at the macroeconomic level are expected to inject liquidity and confidence into risk markets, including crypto assets. If the (GENIUS Act) is ultimately passed, it will mark a significant step for the U.S. in the global digital asset regulatory race, providing a strong compliance endorsement for the global expansion of the dollar stablecoin and potentially having a profound impact on the EU's MiCA regulations and the regulatory paths of other major economies.
However, the outlook is not entirely smooth. Whether the short-term decline in inflation can evolve into a long-term trend remains constrained by uncertainties in the global supply chain and geopolitical factors. Meanwhile, there may still be intense negotiations over details such as state-level licensing and consumer protection before the final vote on the (GENIUS Act). For investors, this means a coexistence of opportunities and uncertainties, and closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy signals and legislative dynamics in Washington will be key to grasping market trends in the coming months.
