BTC volatility hits a new low for the year! 8% chance of a trend reversal imminent!
1. Current Market: Spring compressed to the limit
Price Stalemate: Latest price $108,200, 6-hour volatility only ±0.8%, 40% narrower than yesterday's range.
Indicator Signals: MACD convergence: DIF and DEA difference narrowed to -120, probability of trend reversal increased to 85%.
Bollinger Bands suffocation: Upper and lower band distance 2.1%, reaching the lowest level since 2025, average volatility of 7% after historically similar patterns.
2. Main Force Strategy: Battle at $109,000
Large Order Trick: Sell orders at $109,000 reduced to 36 BTC, but a “ghost order” appears every 20 minutes, suspected to be controlled by a quantitative program.
Funding Rate: Long position rate dropped to 0.005%, contract open interest sharply decreased by 18%, beware of the re-emergence of “long liquidations.”
3. Underlying News Flow
On-chain Anomaly: A whale 1P5ZE transferred in actual BTC of 15,000 coins to the exchange, some used for collateralized loans, estimated sell pressure of $850 million.
Data Preview: Tonight's initial jobless claims in the US expected at 223,000, if above 230,000 will trigger risk aversion.
4. Operation Guide
▶ Short-term
Breakout Scenario: If it holds above $109,000, go long with a target of $111,000.
Breakdown Scenario: If it falls below $107,500, go short, aiming for $105,800.
▶ Medium to Long-term
Bull Market Key: Hong Kong ETF's net inflow must continue to exceed $80 million daily, current three-day average is only $50 million.
As the market continues to change, we must closely monitor market signals to seize new entry opportunities. Like + comment, and let’s navigate this bull market together to seize this major opportunity!
