BTC: Crash warning, is a pullback to 7000 points coming soon?!!
Yesterday I said we might see a high of 108,000, and today it surged to 110,000. When BTC rises, it often exceeds expectations. I already took profit on my long position near 107,800 yesterday and started gradually shorting altcoins at higher prices. Here are my latest thoughts:
1. From the perspective of liquidation estimates: going up to 112,500 can only liquidate 350 million, while crashing down to 103,000 can liquidate 1.77 billion. This significant disparity has reappeared, similar to what I mentioned a few days ago when I expected a rebound to 108,000. At that time, not much could be liquidated on the way down, but a lot could be liquidated on the way up. Each time this kind of gap is large, it is prone to reversal.
2. From the chip structure perspective: it is always difficult to firmly establish above 110,000. The first support below is around 106,000, and the second support is around 103,000.
In summary, in the short term, it might fluctuate around 110,000 to lure more buyers, and then it will likely crash back. I am still inclined to see it oscillate between 100,000 and 110,000 for a while because we are currently in a window before the interest rate cut in September, and there is no real money entering the market; it's just existing funds being juggled, and the trade negotiations from June to July are still unresolved. There might still be some unexpected events. Recently, Musk and Trump have been at odds, and there are immigration issues causing unrest. With so much instability and no real financial backing from interest rate cuts, it is difficult for the financial market to maintain continuity. Therefore, I believe it will still oscillate and come down. Don't think that just because yesterday it was a bear market, today it has turned into a bull market. Right now, it's a monkey market—oscillating.
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