🔍 ETH Current Trend Analysis (Combining Daily + 1 Hour Structure):
1. Trend: Overall still in a strong oscillating pattern
• Upper Resistance: 2865~2885 (Previous High + Accumulation Zone)
• Lower Support: 2820 (MA20 Daily Line) → 2795 (Structure Confirmation Point)
• If it can stabilize above 2885, it is expected to challenge 2900~2930
• If it falls and breaks below 2795, this wave structure will be invalidated
2. K-Line Structure:
• Recently there has been a pin bar bottoming + false breakdown action, indicating that the bulls at the bottom are defending
• Currently in a tug-of-war phase before a "confirmation breakout"
3. MACD & RSI (1H Cycle):
• MACD golden cross just formed, momentum is gently released
• RSI is neutrally strong, has not shown overbought conditions, and there is still room for upward movement
🔔 Recent Positive Factors:
1. Optimistic Ethereum ETF Progress:
• Multiple institutions have submitted ETH Spot ETF amendments to the SEC
• Market expectations for approval probability in the second half of the year have increased → Sentiment is bullish
2. L2 Ecosystem Active:
• Chains like Arbitrum, Optimism, Base are seeing increased activity
• Directly driving the growth of Gas and application value of the main chain ETH
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations:
• US May non-farm data slightly strong but unemployment rate rises, market continues to bet on Q4 rate cuts
• The tendency for funds to flow back to risk assets has increased, potentially benefiting ETH
📌 Operation Suggestions (Based on Your Current High Leverage):
• If it breaks above 2865 and stabilizes with volume, consider adding a portion of the position to challenge 2900;
• If it continues to consolidate between 2835~2865, consider taking partial profits near 2880;
• If it falls back below 2825, especially close to the strong liquidation line (2808), decisive stop loss or reduction of position should be taken to protect capital;
• ⚠️ Current leverage is too high, do not recommend adding positions, only suggest: quick in and out, strict control of pace.
🧠 Future Expected Path:
• If it stands above 2885 → Considered a trend breakout, target 2930~2960;
• If it breaks below 2795 → Structure fails, likely to retrace to the 2740 range.
