Ethereum surged from $1,300 to $2,800, driven by bullish technical indicators like RSI, MACD, and a breakout from a falling wedge pattern.
Fundamental drivers include Ethereum ETF inflows, the upcoming Pectra upgrade, and a revival of DeFi and NFT activity supporting long-term value.
Favorable U.S. regulatory changes and macroeconomic factors, including a weakening dollar, further contribute to Ethereum’s upward momentum and market optimism.
Recently, Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a significant price surge, rebounding strongly from lows of $1,300–$1,500 to nearly $2,800. This notable upswing has sparked widespread attention and debate across the market.
But is this rally merely a short-term technical rebound, or is it driven by deeper fundamental forces that suggest a sustained long-term trend?
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: STRONG SHORT-TERM MOMENTUM AND BULLISH SENTIMENT
Ethereum’s recent rally has shown strong technical rebound signals, injecting substantial momentum into the short-term price action and attracting broad interest from traders and investors.
Breakthrough of Key Resistance Levels and Bullish Patterns
Ethereum recently broke through a key resistance level around $2,787, forming several bullish patterns on both the daily and weekly charts, including a V-shaped recovery and a breakout from a falling wedge pattern.
These technical formations often signal a trend reversal or the continuation of an upward trend.
A falling wedge is a classic bullish pattern, indicating weakening selling pressure and increasing buying strength. After breaking out from this pattern, ETH surged rapidly, highlighting robust buying momentum.
The $2,800–$3,000 zone is a major psychological and technical resistance area—if ETH can break and hold above it, prices may climb further toward the $3,200–$3,500 target range.
Technical Indicators Reflect Strength
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 68, indicating strong momentum while not yet entering overbought territory (overbought is typically RSI > 70).
Previously, ETH’s RSI had dropped to around 36%, suggesting an oversold condition that set the stage for the current rebound.
Recently, trading volume has also seen a significant increase—average daily volume over the past two weeks rose about 25% compared to the previous month, reflecting heightened market participation and accelerated capital inflow.
Additionally, a golden cross (the 20-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average) has strengthened the bullish outlook, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has shown a bullish crossover, further confirming strong short-term momentum.
These indicators collectively provide solid technical support for ETH’s short-term rally.
ETH/BTC Ratio Gains
Ethereum has also outperformed Bitcoin recently, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising by about 30%. This not only reflects enhanced technical momentum but also suggests growing market confidence in Ethereum over Bitcoin.
The rising ETH/BTC ratio is often interpreted as a signal of capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum, especially during bullish market sentiment.
However, a purely technical rebound without fundamental backing could turn into a “dead cat bounce”—a temporary and unsustainable rise. This makes a fundamental analysis all the more critical.
FUNDAMENTALS: CORE DRIVERS SUPPORTING LONG-TERM VALUE
Ethereum’s recent rally is not solely based on technical momentum—fundamental drivers have played an even more dominant role in this uptrend. The following three core catalysts are providing solid support for Ethereum’s rising valuation.
Sustained Inflows into Ethereum ETFs
Since early 2024, spot Ethereum ETFs have become a key market driver. As of June 2025, net inflows have exceeded $3.15 billion. Institutional participation has significantly boosted market confidence.
For example, BlackRock recently acquired $230 million worth of ETH, reflecting institutional recognition of Ethereum’s long-term value. Sharplink Gaming and other institutions have also increased their ETH holdings, underscoring Ethereum’s appeal as an investment asset.
Source：Coinglass
In addition, CBOE and 21Shares plan to launch Ethereum ETFs with staking support—an innovative product expected to attract further institutional capital. The staking mechanism allows investors to earn passive income while holding ETH.
These continued ETF inflows not only improve market liquidity but also provide consistent upward pressure on Ethereum’s price.
On X (formerly Twitter), investor sentiment around ETF developments is optimistic. Many analysts believe the growing ETF market will continue to drive demand for ETH and potentially push prices toward all-time highs.
Pectra Upgrade Boosts Market Confidence
Scheduled for May 7, 2025, the Pectra upgrade is a major focus for the Ethereum community. This upgrade aims to significantly enhance Ethereum’s scalability, transaction efficiency, and user experience, optimizing the environment for decentralized applications (dApps).
Specifically, Pectra will introduce a more efficient gas fee mechanism (such as dynamic fee adjustment), reducing transaction costs for users.
It will also improve staking functionality to strengthen network security. These enhancements will make Ethereum more competitive and attractive to developers and users.
Market expectations surrounding the upgrade have already been priced in to some extent, as many investors believe Pectra will solidify Ethereum’s dominance among Layer 1 blockchains.
Revival of the DeFi and NFT Ecosystems
Ethereum, as the foundational infrastructure for both Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), has seen renewed ecosystem activity supporting its price rise.
Currently, the Total Value Locked (TVL) in Ethereum DeFi protocols exceeds $70 billion, reaffirming its leadership in the sector.
Popular protocols like Uniswap, Aave, and MakerDAO have seen a surge in user activity, reflecting ongoing ecosystem growth. Meanwhile, the NFT market has gradually recovered since late 2024, with trading volume and user engagement rising significantly.
For instance, recent NFT minting and trading activity has directly increased on-chain demand for ETH.
In addition, stablecoins like USDT and USDC are widely used on the Ethereum network, driving further ETH demand due to gas fee requirements.
This ecosystem revival provides solid fundamental support, attracting more users and capital into Ethereum.
REGULATORY AND MACRO ENVIRONMENT: EXTERNAL TAILWINDS
Beyond core fundamentals, external factors are also contributing to Ethereum’s rally.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently introduced “innovation exemptions” for DeFi projects, and progress on stablecoin-related legislation such as the GENIUS Act has reduced regulatory uncertainty for the Ethereum ecosystem.
These policies offer clearer compliance paths for DeFi and stablecoin projects, boosting confidence among developers and investors.
Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, market expectations for crypto-friendly policies have increased. Some analysts believe the new administration may promote a more accommodative regulatory framework.
Bitcoin’s milestone breakout above $100,000 has further ignited market optimism, and as the second-largest crypto asset, Ethereum has greatly benefited.
Additionally, changes in the global macroeconomic environment—such as inflation expectations and a weakening U.S. dollar—have driven investors to allocate more capital into crypto assets, adding more fuel to Ethereum’s price momentum.
OUTLOOK: HOW SUSTAINABLE IS THE RALLY?
Ethereum’s future trajectory hinges on continued alignment between technical strength and fundamental support.
In the short term, technical momentum (e.g., RSI at 68, golden cross) provides fuel for a breakout above $3,000. In the medium to long term, fundamentals—such as ETF inflows, the Pectra upgrade, and ecosystem growth—lay a solid foundation for sustained appreciation.
In addition, whale activity is bullish: addresses holding large ETH balances have increased holdings by 22.54% since March.
ETH balances on exchanges have dropped from 16.2 million to 15.34 million, signaling supply reduction, which further supports price increases.
Social sentiment across platforms remains optimistic, with analysts widely recognizing Ethereum’s central role in DeFi, NFTs, and Layer 1 innovation.
Ethereum’s recent surge is the result of both technical rebound and fundamental strength. However, it is the fundamental drivers—including ETF inflows, the Pectra upgrade, and the revival of the DeFi and NFT sectors—that play the more critical role in sustaining the rally.
Technical momentum has offered short-term lift, but the long-term outlook depends on the continued improvement of Ethereum’s fundamentals.
〈Ethereum’s Recent Surge: Technical Rebound or Fundamentally Driven?〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
