Rolling Position Strategy: The Compound Interest Weapon for Trend Traders
I. Essence of Rolling Positions
1. Mathematical Power
5 correct rolling positions can achieve 100 times return (20%→44%→73%→115%→172%)
2. Cognitive Disruption
Loss is a process, not an outcome
Unrealized gains are not profits but ammunition
Liquidation price should dynamically adjust downward with profits
II. Battle Opportunity Recognition System
1. Three Golden Windows
[Bottom Start] Weekly RSI(14) < 30 followed by a golden cross
[Trend Continuation] Breakthrough of 3-month consolidation range + trading volume increases by 300%
[Emotion Reversal] Fear and Greed Index < 10 followed by the first rebound
2. Environmental Detection Checklist
Overall leverage ratio < 50%
Perpetual funding rate turns positive
Stablecoin market cap weekly growth > 5%
Exchange reserves continue to decline
III. Combat Command System
1. Position Evolution Model
Stage Position Ratio Leverage Defense Strategy
Testing 10-15% 5-8x Hard stop loss 3%
Confirmation 25-30% 3-5x Move to break-even
Acceleration 40-50% 1-2x Trailing stop profit
Harvest 15-20% 0x Gradual exit
2. Position Increase Trigger Mechanism
Price breaks previous high + volume verification
Pullback does not break previous low + volume decreases to MA20
Weekly close stabilizes at key level
IV. Death Boundary Warning
1. Absolute Forbidden Zone
Altcoin rolling positions (liquidity trap)
Counter-trend operations (catching falling knives)
Initial position over 20% of capital
Activated when volatility > 8%
2. Survivor Characteristics
Annual trading frequency < 5 times
80% of the time maintain cash position
Can endure over 40% drawdown
Close the computer immediately when profits reach the target
V. Practical Mindset Inheritance
1. Top Rolling Position Mindset:
Let profitable positions breathe, suffocate losing positions
Gamble with unrealized gains, save life with capital
Before the trend ends, always assume your position is too small
2. Ultimate Questions:
① Can this trend change the industry landscape?
② Is my stop loss at a technically reasonable level?
③ Would liquidation affect my quality of life?
The essence of rolling positions: Use mathematical probability to combat human weaknesses. While ordinary people are busy guessing tops and bottoms, professional players are creating compound interest miracles by exploiting market panic and greed.
Remember, achieving 1-2 successful rolling positions in a year is enough to change your wealth tier.
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