$ETH False Breakout's Five Major Technical Signals!!!
1. Intensified Volume-Price Divergence
Price hits a new high of 2834.23 vs Trading volume shrinks to 166,000 ETH vs Previous value 1,249,000 → Insufficient volume at previous high 13%, the breakthrough foundation is unstable.
2. RSI Extremely Overbought
RSI(6)=82.26 in historical peak value range, in the past 3 years, the probability of a pullback within 72 hours after exceeding 82 is greater than 85%.
3. BOLL Upper Band Resistance
Price is close to the upper band of 2842.86, the BOLL band opens wider, but has not formed an effective breakout.
Historical pattern shows that the probability of a pullback after the first touch of the BOLL upper band is greater than 70%.
4. MACD Momentum Diminishing
MACD bar (28.63) is below the previous high of 29.02, a top divergence is taking shape, DIF and DEA opening narrowing from 70.60 to 41.97.
5. Derivatives Overheated
Perpetual contract funding rate, 0.035% Binance annualized 126%
Long-Short Ratio: 4.8:1 extremely skewed, liquidation heat map shows 120 million long liquidations at 2790.
Second, Long and Short Key Position Verification
Long position at 2830-2842 needs a 30-minute volume greater than 200,000 ETH to stabilize.
Short position at 2795, if it breaches, confirms false breakout, trendline break.
Strong support at 2750-2770 BOLL middle band + previous high conversion support zone. Current price at 2818 is only 0.8% away from the short defense line, very low margin for error.
Third, False Breakout Probability Deduction
Rapid pullback 60%, breaches 2795 within 1 hour to 2750-2,770.
Induce long then kill 25%, false spike to 2830 then flash crash below 2700.
True breakout 15% stabilizing at 2830 with sustained volume increase -2900.
Core Basis
In the past 24 hours, 65% of the trading volume above 2800 concentrated in the 2795-2810 chip dense area, a breakthrough requires new funds to drive.
- 9.5 hours before CPI announcement, market risk aversion sentiment rises.
Fourth, Emergency Operation Strategy
No position/light position
Prohibit chasing long, extreme overbought zone risk-reward ratio unbalanced, profit-loss ratio < 1:1.
Shorting Opportunities
Aggressive party current price light short position ≤ 3%, stop loss at 2835, target at 2770.
Conservative party, wait for 30-minute K-line close < $2,795 before opening short.
Bottoming plan, staggered limit orders 2770 (20%) → 2730 (30%) BOLL middle band!
Fifth, Focus on Market Watching in the Next 3 Hours
1. Volume changes, if two consecutive 15-minute K-lines have volume < 30,000 ETH, false breakout confirmed.
2. BOLL Channel, if price falls below 2810, it will trigger the BOLL upper band resistance effect.
3. Whale Movements, monitor on-chain giant whale transfers > 50,000 ETH into exchanges for warning selling pressure.
False breakout probability > 60%, market sentiment is weak before CPI announcement, RSI > 82 is a strong warning signal.
Do not chase high, do not hold the position, rather miss the 2800 profit than risk a 200 pullback.