The short-term enters an accelerated peak phase at 11,879,183,360, but the overbought risk has reached extreme levels!
Three major danger signals of the peak market!
1. Epic-level overbought RSI
RSI(6)=79.42, the highest value in two years, historical data - RSI(6) > 80 has a probability of correction within 24h > 90% - average correction amplitude 8-12% corresponds to 230-340.
2. Continuous divergence in volume
Current trading volume 144,399 ETH << 5-day average volume 168,292 ETH - Volume bars have shrunk for 3 consecutive K-lines 826k → 357k → 144k, buy orders exhausted.
3. Extremely crazy derivatives perpetual contract funding rate 0.045%, Binance, annualized 164%.
- Long-short ratio: 5.1:1, a new high in the month, 2820 has accumulated 210 million long liquidation positions.
Current price 2848 is in the "dancing on the knife edge" zone:
> - Upside space 12 to 2860
> - Downside risk 59+ to 2789)
> Profit-loss ratio only 1:0.2, historically the most dangerous chase long position.
Friends without positions, strictly prohibited from going long:
- RSI 79.42 + funding rate 0.045% = "suicide combination"
Shorting plan for beginners, please act cautiously!
- Place a short position at 2862 ≤2%, stop loss at 2875 - if it breaks 2840, chase a short position ≤3%, target 2790.
Catalyst monitoring for a crash
1. Whale selling pressure - On-chain alerts, whale addresses are dismantling 15,000 ETH to Binance recharge address about 42.7 million.
2. Technical resonance - 4-hour TD Sequential sell 13 rare top signal.
3. Macro event - 03:00 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision, even if maintaining interest rates, hawkish statements can trigger a crash.
Operational suggestions
> Chasing long at this time = jumping into a meat grinder, strictly adhere to three iron rules:
> 1. Only sell, not buy, 2850 is the escape door granted by God.
> 2. Cash is king, keep ammunition waiting for the opportunity to bottom below 2700 expected within 24-48 hours.
> 3. Uninstall software, avoid itchy hands operating on the strongest overbought market temptations.
Historical repetition warning:
March 2024 2860 trend, after breaking through, a crash of 280 points -9.8% within 24 hours.
November 2023 RSI 79, the next day flash crash of 310 points -12.2%.
The morning strategy has already made a profit, thank you all for your trust and attention, guarding profits is to conquer the market!
A warm reminder, manage your positions well, prohibit frequent opening of orders, if there is anything you don't understand, welcome to discuss in the comments, I will answer for you.
Only trading has no marginal cost; if you do real business, the investment cost is high, and the return cycle is longer. In trading, the longer you hold your position, the greater the risk; short-term trading is also a good choice!
