BTC is strongly rallying; is it a genuine breakthrough or a false one?

First, the conclusion: 107500-108200 is the last opportunity for short positions. If there is a strong breakout here, at least 110,000 is in sight, and a virtual breakdown below 106750 on the 4-hour chart followed by a sell-off must occur for it to be valid. If the 4-hour chart stabilizes here and above, then shorts should exit immediately, as it's easy to resist a few thousand to ten thousand points here.

Fundamentally, Bitcoin's continued sideways movement has brought implied volatility close to a one-year low, but actual volatility is even lower, showing a lack of direction in the market. Currently, there is a lack of clear catalysts; if BTC fails to effectively break through 110,000 or falls below 100,000, it is expected to remain in consolidation. ETF inflows are slowing, and futures positions are declining, indicating market sentiment is weakening. Investors are generally postponing bullish options from July to September, and interest rate cuts in June and July are basically zero.

On-chain data shows that the concentration of BTC holdings is rapidly rising, which means that the time for a change in trend is approaching. Currently, the concentration of holdings is as high as 12%. Generally speaking, around 15% indicates the beginning of a trend change, whether it’s a rapid rally or a sell-off; the market makers are close to collecting enough chips.

Based on the above conclusion, if you are in cash, pay attention to the U.S. stock market opening. If you have a small short position, give it a try; if the 4-hour chart rises above 106750, go long.