海碧

News:
1. From July 23 to July 24, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend hearings in both the Senate and House to explain the semi-annual monetary policy report, the latest statements on inflation and employment, and whether to release a clear signal for a rate cut in September. Currently, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to 75% (CME data). If Powell's attitude is dovish, it may drive cryptocurrency prices up.
2. On July 25, the U.S. initial jobless claims data will be released, with a previous value of 243,000. If it remains above 240,000 for two consecutive weeks, it will strengthen expectations of an economic slowdown and increase the likelihood of a rate cut.
3. July 21 is the deadline for the preliminary opinion submission for the Solana ETF application. If it is approved directly, institutional funds may surge, potentially driving SOL's daily increase over 15%.

Technical Patterns:
1. BTC is forming a converging triangle, but is basically close to a turning point, with limited remaining space. If it breaks below 115,000, it may look down to 112,000-108,000. If it breaks above the previous high, it may reach 135,000 or even higher.
2. SOL is currently focusing on the support and resistance exchange positions (187, 185). If it does not break below this position, there is a possibility of continuing to break through after forming an upward continuation above this position.

High-Risk Events: Possible causes for a sharp market decline
1. Delay in ETF approval
2. If Powell unexpectedly adopts a 'hawkish' stance

July 19, eth.

Let's talk about eth. Since it bottomed out near 2930, it has not moved again. It is obvious that this round of eth's rise is intentional by various institutions. After all, it has been suppressed for too long before.

When everyone sees the weekly K, 2800 is an insurmountable barrier.
When everyone sees that Ethereum has the same electrocardiogram trend from May to June.

Everyone thinks this idiot is going to end. . . .

Now we see that eth's dealer spent half a year to draw a head and shoulders bottom for you.

This round of 2111, I didn't choose eth, but chose sol, which is also because I was disappointed with eth.

However, there are always times when you make mistakes.

In the short term, eth looks at the 3750 pressure level. After reaching here, it will start to consolidate sideways, which means it may break through the 4000 mark.

Again, it depends on what posture it goes up.
Everyone keep a bottom position!

July 19

The sol family army has gathered, previously focusing on the area around 176.

Although most long positions took profit around 176, the short positions incurred losses.
Upon careful analysis, I realized I was wrong; the market is right.

Yes, the market is always right.

On the 4-hour chart, although there is strong resistance at 185, the lows have been consistently rising: 157, 168, 171, 175. Therefore, this rally from 125 is likely to face significant resistance around 188-190, and I expect there will be a bearish divergence pattern at the hourly level before a pullback begins.

For the pullback, watch 168-171.

Being a buddy of Solana is really as uncomfortable as eating shit.

But as a Sol soldier, I still have to say one thing.

The path is chosen by oneself, and what needs to be done must be done.

Currently, on the 4-hour level, there is a pullback to the zero axis, and positions should preferably be kept below 158 for better cost advantage.

First look at 168, then 176.

The trend is weak, so be patient.

I previously highlighted that the first position for Bitcoin is 123000, which has arrived as expected. It’s unlikely to reverse downward immediately, ultimately looking at 135000.

In a bull market, every sharp drop is an opportunity to enter long.

Some friends have become addicted to shorting, always wanting to catch the top. After making a few mistakes, they hesitated to enter again at 123000, which is understandable.

In a bull market, we should try not to short. If you always look at a bull market with a shorting mentality, you will miss out on many substantial long profits.

It’s just like when I previously analyzed that 110500 was the last entry point before the main upward wave.

However, many KOLs and friends around me opened short positions above 110500.

I hope everyone is fine~~~ That’s it for tonight.

Solana, Bitcoin, has formed a 1-hour level top divergence at 118800 and 168.12. Do not blindly chase long positions here; the current top divergence indicates that the upward momentum of this wave is about to exhaust. There may be consolidation in the future market to gather strength for further movement!

Upon the appearance of a 1-hour level divergence, reduce positions without any hesitation; sell off and then find a position to buy back.

I've arrived, today I'm going to fill in the pit I dug yesterday, and the analysis on ETH is here!

Everyone can check out the article I posted in late June, where I suggested that people buy the dip around 98000 and 125. I also mentioned that I manually bought the dip at 128, and at that time, my first target position was 158. It's gratifying that some users listened to me and achieved a 15x return on their investment! (You can check out the chart; it's quite interesting)
Today, let's briefly talk about the logic behind ETH;
Why is ETH starting to surge: The fundamental reason is certainly the market starting to speculate on interest rate cuts; secondly, recently, regarding the issuance of stablecoins, people are optimistic that more and larger stablecoins will be issued on the ETH chain based on its security, which means its future value is limitless; finally, the Ethereum Foundation has also started to take action, stating that they want to maximize (directly or indirectly) the number of people using Ethereum and improve Ethereum technology. Actually, I value their support for developers and project founders even more;
When will it rise: In a bull market, we don’t look for tops, and in a bear market, we don’t look for bottoms; in fact, most losses come from — (I think), for example, I feel that it has risen enough, I think it will stop here at most, I think a pullback is about to happen; (I think) is a very illogical, very emotional thing. As a trader, you cannot and should not have such emotions; let me mention a few resistance levels, and then we can judge where the top is based on the trend; 3170-3300-3430-3550. Basically, the probability of breaking through this large chunk in one go is too small, and currently, we do not see any signals of a top. Please do not (I think we have reached the top), be patient and wait. Follow me for large-scale top and bottom trading~

SOL market analysis, July 11.

Since SOL adjusted to 145, I have firmly encouraged a bullish outlook, not just because of the possible movement in SOL's spot price. I've been calling for a bullish trend for a week now, tracing back to early July.

You might think, SOL is really garbage; Bitcoin has reached new highs, and SOL hasn't even broken 160.

As a supporter of SOL, I have also doubted myself at times, but after observing for so long, how can I give up easily? I’ve advised my friends to go long on ETH and BTC, and they are making significant profits, while SOL remains stagnant.

Let’s do a simple analysis: currently, the weekly K-line for SOL is facing resistance at 160, having tested this level twice after rising from 125.

At the same time, the 159-160 position is also the pressure level for the 2-day line and the daily line at 144, where selling pressure is heavy. It's normal that it can't break through, but we’ve started to see that the price is slowly grinding upwards. Once the price breaks 160, it will definitely lead to a nice increase in volume, and a major bullish trend is about to form.

Let’s look forward to it together!!!

Originally wanted to write an analysis on ETH and SOL, but got delayed by some matters in the evening..

However, I found some time to finish the analysis on Bitcoin, though it’s not very structured.

But I mentioned the key positions, and the market was considerate, giving us a position of 110432, allowing us all to enter more.

As mentioned in the previous article, the breakthrough rise of Bitcoin is an inevitable result, but the manner in which it rises is crucial.

Currently, the trend looks very healthy, with no divergence and a substantial breakthrough upwards.

Continue to hold, aiming for 115000.

I know many people are bearish, but since the rise from 107200, we actually can't be bearish anymore...

If you want to see the analysis on ETH and SOL, I'll write a separate piece.

BTC July 10 Market Review

On the 8th, it was detailed that Bitcoin was bottoming out around 107,200, moving very steadily. It was also mentioned in advance that there would definitely be a breakthrough of 110,500, and it was estimated to stop around 113,000-115,000. Currently, Bitcoin has reached a new high of 112,000 and is oscillating between 110,500 and 111,200. The middle position of the four-hour K-line is around 110,500, where it is still possible to go long, but the market is already at the late stage.

Whether the future will be a new development or a final pullback is uncertain. The key is to observe whether the subsequent rally in Bitcoin has volume. Pay special attention to the divergence situation of MACD on the four-hour and two-hour charts.

No images will be included as I'm typing on my phone.

btc25.7.8
In the 4-hour market, after rising from 98, it has been moving steadily, with the center of gravity continuously shifting upwards, especially after 107200. Although the market has relatively reversed, it has overall pulled back and continues to consolidate above 108000. In the future, there will inevitably be a breakout above 110500; personally, I estimate that the high point of this surge will be between 113000-115000.

The entry position mentioned last night was at the double bottom position of 107500.
Pay close attention to the breakout situation at 108800 and whether there will be a pullback action.

The stop-loss remains at 107000 for now, and I will not move the stop-loss up temporarily.

Briefly talk about the recent movements and views.

For SOL, after divergence at the 156 position, it went down with increased volume, once approaching the previous low at 144.67, and for two days over the weekend it hovered between 146-148. On Monday, it surged to 154 before following BTC downwards.
The current low is at 147.6, so the lows of this round of increases are 125, 137, 144, 146, and 147. At this point, anyone still saying SOL will go bearish is just trying to mislead. Indeed, everyone in the world, including fools, knows that SOL's spot ETF is about to be approved, either in July or September. Therefore, I believe part of this good news has already been priced in.

I have always emphasized that SOL can be bought at the 142-146 position, which is simple, a bull flag pattern, buying on dips.

For the high point, I continue to see the 173-177 position.

For defense, I would set it below 144, and if it breaks down, I will manually re-enter.

Spent so much space to emphasize that the pullback of SOL is just a pullback. I believe everyone has seen it. At the lowest point on Friday, it was 145.1, and I still emphasize that it is just a pullback.

Currently, there is a low divergence on the 4-hour chart; it's hard for the market not to rise...

We continue to look at the range of 173-177.

All technical analysis and points are derived from reasoning, not predictions.
The market should be based on what it gives.

When reasoning about the market, one must definitely prepare for both sides. I already moved the stop loss of my 146 position to 150; I'm not afraid of anything.

For the 146 position, when entering, I had a stop loss at 145 because of the previous low of 145.1. It's that simple.

So, don't just talk about predictions with me. What analysis? It's analysis, never prediction.

146 Did you enter the venue?

The bullish pattern hasn't been broken, it's just that the candlestick movements look a bit unattractive. How should I put it? At around 107500, even if you ask me to short, I wouldn't dare to build a position, but if you ask me to go long, I can do that, and I have already gone long. Sol has given another opportunity at 146-145, continuing to look up above 170, estimated around 177.

Do you think this 145-146 is a buying opportunity?

I know there are many shorting above 110,000, but if Bitcoin rises to 114,000, I estimate everyone will be very overwhelmed, and I think this round can probably push it to 114,000-115,000

At the end of July, expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and the market reaction was an inflow of 400 million, with the price smoothly rising to 109700. After a pullback to 144, SOL continued to rise. We recommend entering to go long at 142-146, and currently, there's a profit of nearly 10 USD. The target is above 170, tentatively set at 177.

This time, we need to hold steady. In the last round, we entered at 128-133 with a target of 158. Those who couldn't hold on need to learn from this lesson.

Emphasized several times, the short opportunity here at 109700 for the pancake, unfortunately, always just misses it, again the highest at 109690.1, did you enter this trade?

Let's chat casually for a moment. The support before the big pancake has been mentioned, 105000, the first support, then 103100 as the second support. When the big pancake broke below 106000, many people thought it was bearish, but in reality, it was not as everyone imagined, just a slap in the face. I even know of shorts around 108000 from the last round, which fell all the way to 98000 and didn't exit, then watched the profits evaporate, until now being trapped again.

The view remains unchanged, buy sol at positions 146, 162, target 170+, this current market situation is definitely not over yet.

146 has arrived. Once you reach the location, go in boldly. Don't be afraid,补仓 when you go down!