海碧

I won't write an analysis today. Many people are looking at 100,000 and 130,000. If this is a bull retracement, what data supports it? Is there interest rate cuts, balance sheet reduction, and macroeconomic easing? Just to pull it up? Is it just to help those who were at the previous peak?
Alright, ignoring all that, let's assume it's a bull retracement. Will it shoot up more than 40,000 points like before Huang Mao came to power? Are we afraid to take the big move at 74,500 and charge aggressively at 95,000? I believe there might be 300,000 or 500,000 later, but that will be after several rounds.
Everyone knows I actually prefer to trade based on technical candlestick patterns. The news just amplifies the trend. Currently, if the 1-hour chart forms a consolidation between 91,700 and 95,000, that indicates a divergence in the trend. What's wrong with taking a few hundred points here? Even if we make a mistake, we must act! Isn't it normal for a bull retracement to correct by 7,000 to 8,000 points? How can we reach 130,000 or 150,000 without throwing everyone off the bus?
I'm not the type to only look in one direction. I adjust at any time, trading trend positions and short positions! At 74,800, I said I would do everything to reach 85,000 and 95,000, and everyone benefited from it. Yesterday, I also provided a short position at 91,700, which reached 95,000. What is the most common losing mentality among retail traders? It’s the fear of missing out!
That's all.
After opening a position, there's no need to be anxious or worried. All points and directions are available in my articles on the Plaza.
I will share all my trading thoughts and points without reservation on the Plaza. Historical performance can be verified, with a very high win rate. With precise timing, even light-positioned swing trades can easily double your capital.
Follow me to make trading easier for you.
Do you think the 145 SOL has flipped yet?

Today's trading method is basically consistent with yesterday's analytical thought. Who can understand the value of this sentence?
Big Cake 95000 short, precisely accurate.
Auntie 1801 short, extreme key point.

Who still says Huang Mao is not a market maker?
Virtual currencies, stocks, gold, and various markets that can make money, as long as they can be manipulated by Huang Mao, will openly act as market makers.
The 225 people holding the most Trump coins can have dinner with Trump, and the top 25 can enter the White House to hear the holy message.
The price of Trump coins soared by 50%, joining hands to manipulate and raise the coin price...
This move is particularly reminiscent of 'Let the Bullets Fly'.
Those who understand, understand.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks opened up 4% pre-market because U.S. officials stated that the issues with GS could drop to around 50% compared to the previous 145%, a reduction of 66%. Therefore, the pre-market bullish sentiment was very strong, but during the day, little Huang Mao said that negotiations were not yet finalized, and the market should not overreact. U.S. stocks opened high and closed low, finally only rising by 1%.

From a technical perspective, the daily level triple push has been mentioned before, with 95000 being the ultimate closing point for long positions, while the next important level is 97600, mainly depending on whether tonight's 1-hour line can pull back above 94000 and stabilize; otherwise, the current daily candlestick with a pregnant line indicates a potential trend change.
In terms of capital flow, there have been two consecutive days of inflow, but the significant inflow on the second day did not raise the coin price, proving that profit-taking at the bottom is being executed. From the weekly data, the current BTC price and trading volume are inverted; historically, when there is inversion, it usually begins to correct sharply. Therefore, the recent rise will not have strong continuity.

Future trading thoughts:
1. 91700 is an important support; if it breaks, the upward momentum will weaken. Students who followed the long position here at 94200 and 95000 should take profits in batches.
2. Short positions should be built in batches at 94200 and 95000, with a stop loss at 95800.
3. The ideal short position entry point is at 97600; if the market gives it, no one can stop me from shorting.

ETH: 1801 short, stop loss at 1850.
ETH: 1680 long, stop loss at 1640.
SOL: 152.5 short, stop loss at 154.5

The above~~

Has Bitcoin stabilized at 94,000?
My thoughts are still a bit conservative. Yesterday, I analyzed that Bitcoin wouldn't drop below 87,400, and it would go to 94,000-95,000. This morning, it was at 94,000, and now it’s approaching 95,000.

Originally, I had placed a short order at 94,800, but now adjustments are needed.

Yesterday, Bitcoin had a net inflow of 936 million. The aunt had a net inflow of 38 million. These are numbers that are only seen in a bull market. At the same time, the US stock market surged, driving Bitcoin to break through 90,000 and reach 94,000. I expect it has reached a short-term peak;

Huang Mao's view on Old Powell has changed, reducing tariffs on the East, which has filled everyone with confidence in economic recovery. The dollar has appreciated, US stocks have surged, and gold has begun to decline, with funds being released from gold and flowing into US stocks and our crypto circle.

Based on the above judgments, the inflow situation for the ETF tonight is unknown, but it can be boldly speculated that it will still flow in, as funds have certain inertia.

From a technical perspective reflected in the candlestick chart, a three-push pattern has formed on the daily chart. Important resistance levels are at 95,100 and 97,000.
If there are long positions at 90,000 and below, move the stop loss to 92,500. Aim for 95-97. Take profits in batches.

At 95,200, I will try a light short position.
When Bitcoin reaches 97,000, I will attempt a normal-position short.

Currently, the exchange rate is changing too quickly, and both ETH and SOL have rebounded to varying degrees. If you favor these two assets, you may directly enter the market following Bitcoin’s price points.

The trading ideas are all provided and have coherence, with high probability swing trades. You can easily turn over your position without heavily investing. Just follow me; it’s that simple.

Is the slap coming so fast?
This time, I have to admit I'm slapping myself!!!

Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped below 87,000, and I thought it was stable. This morning, I woke up to see it pulled back up. This back-and-forth is actually problematic, so I re-evaluated my analysis.

The daily chart of Bitcoin started to flip on January 31. Each time there was a big drop and rebound, it hit 0.618, and then dropped 1.1. This is a standard harmonic three-wave movement. At the bottom, the 4-hour chart showed divergence, which was the main reason I led everyone to bottom-fish and go long at 74,800. (I drew the line at 74,500, afraid I wouldn't get filled, so I raised it by 300 points.)
However, the daily chart of Bitcoin has not flipped. The information and funding situation at that time were not like they are now, so I judged that there would be exhaustion of upward momentum around 84,000-85,000, and the market would turn bearish again.

Funding situation: Starting from April 9, the outflow of Bitcoin ETF began to decrease significantly, and from April 14, inflows turned positive, reaching 380 million USD on the 21st.
Information situation: Since the tariff war began, the US dollar has continued to weaken, and the safe-haven attribute of gold has greatly strengthened. Bitcoin, which is priced in USD and has a certain safe-haven attribute, will gradually strengthen.

Based on the collection of information from all the above aspects and combined with technical analysis, if you still have long positions below 80,000, then around 88,500, close half, and hold the rest to close at around 95,000 is a good strategy.

Previously, I mentioned a short position around 88,500, which would have a stop loss at 89,100, with the target continuing to look at 83,000.
If currently in cash, go long on Bitcoin when it retraces to 86,500-87,000. Just use a small stop loss, with a target of 95,000-96,000.
Once the target area is reached, reverse and short.

The big drop came as expected. This is not called a painting gate, but Yin Yang Optimus Prime.

After two weeks of flat market, the market finally ushered in a big fluctuation.

BTC followed gold to rise against the trend tonight, from 87500 to around 88400. It is very regrettable that the friends who placed orders to cover their positions did not cover them here, and those who covered them manually covered them.

All the previous articles in the square have emphasized that after the market reached above 85000, the cost-effectiveness, profit and loss ratio, and the feeling of holding positions are not as good as those of short orders.

Friends who followed us all the way from 75800 to long, don’t have to worry about not getting the last 2000 points. It’s delicious to eat only the head and body of a fish. (The trend is growing, but it has been two weeks and I neglected it.)

The day before yesterday, Sol gave a strategy of entering the market at 141.65 and focusing on shorting around 144.95. The highest has only reached 143.25, so there should be no chance to enter the market.

ETH performed the worst in this round of pull-up. It did not even reach the previous high of 1690. I told my friends to sell above 1630. This time we agreed to hold it.

Next, for BTC orders, focus on the reaction of 88000. If it cannot break through effectively, the daily market trend will still be down. The market will only rebound without reversal. Then the lower 84000 and 81000 are both stop-profit positions. Keep the bottom position, we can get lower.

Sol, although it is strong when it is sideways, its performance in the past two days has been very poor. It follows the decline but not the rise. 130, 124, and 113 below are several important stop-profit positions, and it may also be lower.

When placing orders, you should know where the market is going and why it is going this way. You will not be anxious naturally if you advance and retreat in moderation.

Follow me, please continue to follow me. All subsequent market analysis and point layout will be updated every day.

Did you enter the market for the 87400 that was laid out yesterday?

Never has there been such a large divergence between bulls and bears as now. The bullish side seems to suggest that 'whales' are quietly stocking up, and with gold skyrocketing, Bitcoin, as digital gold, is also expected to rise significantly. On the bearish side, the Federal Reserve Chairman's recent tough stance indicates that the market will not be rescued in the short term, and Trump's policies are all just hot air, making sustained increases unlikely; after all, digital gold is not real gold.
For us retail investors, how should we seize the future?

From a trend perspective, around 88,000 is an important position for either a rebound or a reversal. If it breaks upward, it will directly surge above 94,000-95,000 in the short term, but if it cannot break through, it means that the overall downward trend has not reversed, and we need to look for support points again around 80,000 and below; thus, the 87,000-88,000 area we have been emphasizing recently is a key position to try. As long as it does not close above 87,000, basically 85,000 is likely to be given, and my suggestion is to take profits at 85,000-83,000 as the first target and around 80,000 as the second target. Leave some as a bottom position to see how it goes, just in case? After all, from a cyclical perspective, there are already characteristics of a mid-term bear market. Everyone can continue to follow us; we will post updates on market conditions and points every day in the square and group.

Here are a few suggestions for everyone: do not blindly chase highs and cut losses; trade at important support and resistance levels. Following emotions can easily lead to being repeatedly cut. In the short term, it is still mainly a consolidation phase, and a bull market with several thousand points of increase is unlikely because market liquidity cannot keep up. We need to wait for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, stablecoin increases, and government stimulus; only when all three conditions are met can we talk about a bull market!

Regarding Solana, many people are looking at 147, and some are even rolling over to go long. This is just a small independent market, and we still need to see the big brother's mood. Over the past year, there have been many times when Sol has been moving independently, but these periods haven't lasted long and the volatility has been limited. Everyone should stay cautious and not chase after breakthroughs immediately.

The advantage of swing trading is that the entry points are comfortable and you can hold onto them.

Bitcoin is still fluctuating within a range; if Bitcoin doesn't move in a direction, then the second and third brothers can't break out of their circles.

good luck!

Is Solana making a strong breakthrough?
This morning, Solana strongly broke through the resistance level of 136, driving Bitcoin up. Bitcoin rose from 84300 to 85200, although it only increased by 900 points. However, Solana's two bullish candles pushed it from 133 directly to 139, and it has not yet broken through the 140 mark.

Today, we will not discuss any information content, only operational analysis.

Bitcoin is following my personal short position above 85600, which can still be held, with the stop-loss adjusted slightly above 86100. The current market situation makes it very uncertain whether this is a true breakthrough, but what can be confirmed is that we are currently at a high stage. With the price here, I can be sure that the long positions are in a tail-end market, where the risk and reward are not proportional.
If it breaks out of the box upwards, the important levels above are 87400 and 88500.
You can either open a short position with a small stop-loss or combine the two levels into one position, depending on your preference.

Solana has now broken through the box and shows an upward trend, with important short positions above at 141.65 and 144.95. For safety, open at 144.95.
Although Solana has strongly broken through, the overall direction still depends on the leader's mood. Can an independent market really remain independent? We shall see.

Although Solana's short position at 136 incurred a small loss, the market has finally shown some volatility. This week has really jolted people, and I believe the upcoming market will be even more exciting.

I was also shaken by the tremors. Outside, there is a large area looking for a breakthrough. I don't know where the breakthrough is coming from; I can only see that the upward volume is insufficient, and there is a high-level sideways fluctuation. At this moment, I recall last August when Bitcoin surged from 53,000 to 65,000 in one go, consolidated for a week, and finally broke out.

Of course, history can only serve as a reference.

On the daily chart level, there are currently no signs of any market reversal.

We can only be shaken.

Following my article analysis, building positions above 85,600, and for those holding SOL at 135-136, it is now a test of your determination!

Everyone, keep it up!

Have you been shocked?
Since last week when Bitcoin jumped to the 80,000 mark, I've been calling for a short. A week later, Bitcoin is still hovering near the short position entry point, unable to go up or down. Currently, there is severe risk aversion, and global companies are caught in a bind due to uncertain tariff policies. Although more than half of over 70 countries are willing to negotiate and agree to 0 tariffs, Trump has not budged, hoping to gain better leverage. This indicates that in the short term, there are no conducive conditions for a significant positive development.
The anticipated interest rate cut in June is still shrouded in fog, and the battle between the Federal Reserve and Trump is just beginning.

Returning to the market, today the U.S. stock market is closed. Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of 100 million dollars, and around 3 PM, Bitcoin climbed to around 85,400 but did not continue to rise. The upward momentum has basically been exhausted; as the saying goes, one strong push leads to a decline, and if it continues, it will eventually deplete.
The view remains unchanged; BTC is still in a downward channel on the daily chart, and the 4-hour chart is fluctuating between 83,100 and 85,300, with a trend change imminent.

For Solana, the strong resistance at the 136 area still exists, on-chain activity has increased, and the coin price is relatively strong compared to Ethereum. Those who opened positions here have maintained floating profits, but holding positions still requires faith.

Another piece of fluff, the view remains unchanged, let's all keep going together.

Technology stocks are under pressure, gold is strong, and U.S. bonds are in high demand.
Countries are buying gold.
The negotiations between the United States and Europe are at a stalemate.
Xiaorizi wanted to reach an agreement quickly after the negotiations, but the lion opened his mouth and could only respond that both sides should consider more and not make a decision easily.
Only Xiaowanwan knelt down.

These outcomes of the tariff incident are not what Huangmao wants to see. I personally think that there will not be too many followers who will reach an agreement in the follow-up development. After all, there has been strong opposition.

From the information perspective, the most watched event in the world is the tariff incident. Now it is a mess. The uncertain business environment makes it difficult for the economy to develop in a good direction. Therefore, as I analyzed in the afternoon, before the incident is completely settled, whether it is the U.S. stock market or the crypto market, it is difficult to have a bright rise.

Those who often watch my square, I have drawn a round top structure before. At present, the big cake is developing towards this script, so the points given in the afternoon are still valid. (Please refer to the previous article for the points.)

Since April 10, the market has been difficult to trade, and everyone has experienced it, but everyone's patience is also being worn out. The general direction is clear, and positions are built in the appropriate range. The next step is to wait. .

Let us encourage each other!

Recently, the gold market has been particularly strong, as investors are seeking safe-haven assets. Generally, in a risk-averse market environment, gold, the US dollar, and US Treasury bonds tend to rise. However, the main risk this time is occurring in the United States, so the dollar and US Treasury bonds are no longer safe havens. This means that the available options for hedging have decreased, which is the underlying logic for the continuous rise of gold. For the cryptocurrency market, there will also be some stimulating effects, but it is not the first choice for external funds. Recently, we can see that overall ETF inflows have not significantly increased; currently, it is more about a rebound from previous overselling and speculation on the Federal Reserve's increased expectations for rate cuts. In the medium to short term, the real catalyst for a market reversal will still be a de-escalation of trade and tariff issues. If these matters can stabilize temporarily, the cryptocurrency market may witness a genuine rise. Therefore, I still believe that any rebound in the short term presents a short-selling opportunity.

Technical Analysis:
From the candlestick pattern, BTC is still within a daily downtrend channel. The 4-hour resistance level at 85,200 has not been effectively broken, and this resistance level remains valid. I estimate that the oscillation range between 83,100 and 85,200 is nearing its end, likely within this week.

Everyone should try to enter short positions around or above 85,200.
The price of SOL follows BTC. (Try to build positions above 135 and higher.)

Yes, the strategy group and the square locations are consistent. Code xldota

Maximum 86400?

Yesterday, I emphasized opening a short position at 86000, and opened a short position above 132 for sol. Of course, I know that most people are calling for a breakout and are shouting long positions, with some looking at 88000 and others at 92000, but when the market comes down, they play dead.

Today, my mental massage therapist continues to work, and many friends who followed me to open shorts around 86000 have already made about 3000 points and can't resist the loneliness, starting to close their positions. They believe that as long as they can take profits, it's fine; whether they earn more or less depends on their understanding. As long as you don't leave and are in a hurry to open a position, it's fine. It's like going to Macau to gamble, hitting twice and making money, thinking you are the chosen one, eagerly opening a third bet, but if you get it wrong, you may face a total loss—at best, you give up your profits, at worst, you get seriously hurt.

Why do I only shout for swing trades? Because swing trades have higher returns, and the frequency of opening positions is low, most friends can keep up. Day trading can provide 4-6 trades a day, but the profits are low, and you might miss the opportunity when I call it out. You end up contributing to transaction fees for nothing.

Back to the market, yesterday the ETF ended its outflow and switched to inflow, over 1.4 million dollars. Looking at the daily chart, the downtrend has not ended, and the large range from the bottom to the upper 86400 has exceeded 12000 points. Assuming a reversal occurs later, we still need to test the bottom support first.
So, the short position near 86000 yesterday had the first take profit level set around 81300, and the second take profit level set around 77800, which is very prudent (the 4-hour level is showing downward volume, it can't be just 2000-3000 points).
For new friends, if you are flat, you can try to short if BTC rebounds near 84400.

For sol, as mentioned yesterday, the 1-hour head and shoulders pattern has completed, and the next move is downward with increasing volume, following BTC, with the first take profit level around 113 and the second take profit level around 108. It is worth mentioning that we need to pay attention to the collapse of sol's chain, as a sharp collapse may continue downward. This is commonly referred to as a correction (after all, when the major coin was doing a double bottom at 74500 last week, sol did not form a double bottom).
For those who are flat, if it reaches around 128, you can try to open a small short position.

The market is moving slowly, everyone be patient.

If you like it, please follow, all positions in the square are laid out in advance, and I haven't lost in the past month.

It has already started to decline, breaking through several small support levels in a short time, which is a good phenomenon. This trade has been really exhausting; I started calling for a short position last Friday, and throughout Sunday and Monday, the position has been continuously adjusted (the direction has not changed).

Fortunately, most friends have already raised their BTC entry price above 85,600, and the entry price for SOL has been raised above 133.

Today, the US stock market opened high and then fell, which aligns with the conclusions I provided on Sunday and Monday. If the tariff resolution is a sustained small positive impulse, it would be a drop in the bucket for the overall market, and there won't be significant increases. At the same time, once the market gets used to such small stimuli and develops “drug resistance,” then positives will no longer be positives.

From the low point of 74,500 to 86,400, it has already moved up 12,000 points with basically no pullback. This kind of increase basically indicates that the main force has limited funds for this round; next is the old routine: a choppy washout, creating lower lows, generating panic, and tricking people into giving up their chips. Only with enough chips can a rally happen, as the large number of trapped positions above are seen as meat by the main force.

Although the current market sentiment has shown some recovery, the short-term options market still leans towards bearish.

Today, the good news is that after five days of grinding, I no longer have to be a psychological therapist. The latest positions given in the afternoon have also started to show floating profits, but to eat a big profit, patience is still required.

PS: Interestingly, while watching the market in the afternoon, the SOL 1-hour chart formed a head and shoulders pattern; I drew the lines, and just now when I looked again, the head and shoulders pattern had formed. Funny~~~

All points in the square were given in advance, with no hindsight calls. Historical articles in the square can be checked; everyone is welcome to exchange and discuss together.

A picture is worth a thousand words!

Currently, there are two analyses regarding Trump's tariff war. If the average 'high tariff' scenario of 25% is maintained, core PCE inflation may rise to 4% to 5%. If tariffs lead to a significant economic slowdown that threatens a recession, even if inflation is above 2%, there is a high probability of an early rate cut;

In the 'low tariff' scenario, where only a 10% tariff is retained, the inflation peak is about an annualized 3%, with weaker impacts and slower transmission. If core inflation continues to decline, the Federal Reserve will consider rate cuts in the second half of the year. Therefore, an important economic data point is needed to decisively determine the key factors leading to a recession due to the tariff war, thereby changing the current tariff policy.

Before that, the market will not directly reverse to bullish. Currently, although market sentiment has somewhat recovered, the short-term options market still leans bearish.

BTC: From the overall K-line trend, the 1-hour line shows an M-top trend with some divergence; placing a short position near 86000 with the first take profit at 79650 seems reasonable.

SOL: Currently oscillating in a high range of 128-132, one can attempt a short position at 132, with the first take profit at 113.

Still a mental massage.

Following the noon tone, the market is gradually losing patience with Huang Mao's statements and tariffs. Moreover, there are insiders making thousands of times profit; if it weren't for their identity acting as a protective charm, there would definitely be a reason for manipulating the market.

Many people are looking at the weekend tariff exemptions as a positive sign, suggesting that the market will rise on Monday, expected to open 5-6 points higher. But have you considered why the insider chose to sell on Monday?
Now, the Nasdaq opened high but fell low, which indeed proves that the market is gradually losing patience with Huang Mao's statements manipulating the market; we are done playing.

Feedback in our crypto market, actually, when placing orders last Friday, it had already been carefully thought out for quite a while. If it weren't for the sudden news on Saturday, 86 shouldn't have gone up.

This round from the bottom of 75800, everyone collectively bought up to 86100, a rise of 10,000 points, has basically reached the limit of the manipulators' pulling power. Friends who are observant and look at the 4-hour chart can see that almost every round of pulling is between 10k-12k. This indicates that the manipulators' chips have this much strength. High-level fluctuations require patience.

Speaking of BTC's situation, it is generally believed that this round will be about 86100; if there is sudden news, the highest will still look at the previous high of 88500 (this position we have previously suggested shorting).
Last night's article still suggested that those who were stopped out or took profits, and friends who are in cash positions should build positions between 85000-85600.

For SOL, last night I advised to continue placing shorts at 136. Some friends were impatient and placed orders above 133, which is fine. It’s worth mentioning that when the dog coins on the SOL chain crash, it’s when SOL will start to rebound; I believe it won't take too long. Only orders placed at extreme points can enter the market with floating profits and might be held for a longer duration.

Today is purely psychological reassurance; the levels and direction remain unchanged: wide fluctuations. Upper limit 87500, lower limit 81200.

PS: The overall market has a door-like trend; looking forward, there are plenty of examples. Just to mention, last August, there was a big door, high-level fluctuations and consolidation, where it came from, it will return to.

The opinions and directions are just one person's view, for your amusement~

xldota