海碧

Actually, making money is that simple; there's no need to be immersed in orders every day.

So the question arises: do you think this is the bottom?

BTC is strongly rallying; is it a genuine breakthrough or a false one?

First, the conclusion: 107500-108200 is the last opportunity for short positions. If there is a strong breakout here, at least 110,000 is in sight, and a virtual breakdown below 106750 on the 4-hour chart followed by a sell-off must occur for it to be valid. If the 4-hour chart stabilizes here and above, then shorts should exit immediately, as it's easy to resist a few thousand to ten thousand points here.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin's continued sideways movement has brought implied volatility close to a one-year low, but actual volatility is even lower, showing a lack of direction in the market. Currently, there is a lack of clear catalysts; if BTC fails to effectively break through 110,000 or falls below 100,000, it is expected to remain in consolidation. ETF inflows are slowing, and futures positions are declining, indicating market sentiment is weakening. Investors are generally postponing bullish options from July to September, and interest rate cuts in June and July are basically zero.
On-chain data shows that the concentration of BTC holdings is rapidly rising, which means that the time for a change in trend is approaching. Currently, the concentration of holdings is as high as 12%. Generally speaking, around 15% indicates the beginning of a trend change, whether it’s a rapid rally or a sell-off; the market makers are close to collecting enough chips.
Based on the above conclusion, if you are in cash, pay attention to the U.S. stock market opening. If you have a small short position, give it a try; if the 4-hour chart rises above 106750, go long.

BTC touched the 100,000 support level yesterday, it will definitely break 100,000 tonight!?

Yesterday we mentioned that there are only two major support levels, one near 102,000 and the other near 98,000. These two levels will definitely react. Then we discussed the second perspective that although 102,000 has rebounded, the larger downtrend has not yet ended, for example, the weekly divergence still needs adjustment, rebounding to 104,000-105,000 before dropping again to near 98,000, and only then will a new uptrend begin; today, although it is below 102,000, it has indeed rebounded to our short position range (104,000-105,000), let's wait and see tonight.

The waterfall is coming! Will BTC break below 100,000!?

This trend started with a short at 110,700, shorted down to 103,600, then positioned short around 106,900 (it's a bit unfortunate that we missed it by a little over 100 points, but fortunately most of my friends entered their first position at 105,800), so where do we see ourselves now? Here I will share my thoughts, there are only two major support levels, one is around 102,000 and the other is around 98,000, both of these levels will definitely react. The first scenario is a rebound around 102,000, which perfectly corresponds to the downtrend, the second scenario is that although there is a rebound at 102,000, the larger downtrend is still not over, for example, a weekly divergence still needs adjustment, rebounding to 104,000-105,000 before dropping again to around 98,000 and then starting a new upward trend; it's still too early to judge how this will unfold, but for now, I personally lean towards the second scenario.

BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about 87 million dollars yesterday, while ETH ETF had a net inflow of about 57 million dollars. Currently, we are at a divergence point between long and short near historical highs, and some of the early buyers of Bitcoin ETF have taken profits in the past few days.

This Friday's non-farm payroll data, especially the unemployment rate, is a key reference for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Unless economic data shows significant weakness, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in the third quarter remains low;

So, do you think it can reach 102,000 this time?

Maximum 110700? Minimum 103000? No worries, I've planned everything.

The BTC market is not yet reversing, please do not be overly optimistic!

Last week we mentioned that there might be a short-term oversold rebound at the daily level, with structural support around 103000. Indeed, it has rebounded more than 3400 points, and we are only about 500 points away from our second take-profit position; our short position will still be set around 107000, primarily based on the judgment that there has still not been sufficient adjustment near 103000. Now, if it goes up, my judgment is that this is just a pullback, unless it rises and stabilizes above 108600, otherwise, I still see it as bearish.

From a capital perspective: On June 2, BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 268 million USD, while the alternative spot ETF had a net inflow of 78.17 million USD; long-term holding whale addresses experienced a wave of selling on May 27, roughly selling 2.5 billion USD, indicating that while this may not necessarily be an absolute peak position, it is at least a high range. Perhaps another wave of increase followed by a large sell-off could confirm this round's peak position, which I estimate to be around 125000.

From a technical perspective: The current resistance levels are around 106400 and 107400. We will focus on the non-farm payroll data coming out Friday night. The current trend may be a choppy one, and the market will have a new direction after Friday's non-farm payroll data is released;

In the future, we still see choppy movements, only with prolonged volatility will there be a significant fluctuation.

Last week, affected again by the GS issue, the US stock market plunged, causing Bitcoin to retract. I estimate that within the next 1-2 weeks, both sides will start active talks again, and there's no need to overinterpret. After all, only by joining forces can East and West reap the benefits.

What I find particularly interesting is that the Americans refer to the yellow-haired one as taco. Taco is a Mexican food, a thin-skinned wrap, similar to what we have like chicken wraps or flatbread wraps.

However, this time when stockholders say the yellow-haired one is taco, it means Trump Always Chickens Out. Simply translated, it means the yellow-haired one always backs out at the last moment, and it has now evolved into taco trading.

What is taco trading? It means that whenever the yellow-haired one releases bad news, one should boldly buy in, because in a few days, the yellow-haired one will back out again, leading to a rebound in stock prices and profits upon exit. This has already been proven many times, so more and more Americans believe in taco trading.

Back to the market, on Friday, I had already made predictions and interpretations for the Dragon Boat Festival + Children's Day market in advance, and basically everyone has been trading this way.

Seeing the chart in the previous post being called a scam is unnecessary, but I still really want to retaliate. Let me share a few more charts.

Note: In the market, there are no fixed points; it may just happen that one gets lucky and hits the point, purely by luck, nothing more. Anyone boasting about their ability to hit points is a fraud. What we can do is to clearly see a certain market segment, then get in and ride that segment, that's all.

Is it time for BTC to take off!?

James's BTC long position has been completely closed, with a cumulative loss of 36.03 million dollars this round, haha, making money in the crypto circle and spending in the crypto circle, both wanting to take back home.

The divergence at the five-day and weekly levels still exists, and the current weekly divergence basically has no possibility of resolution. There may be a short-term oversold rebound demand at the daily level, with structural support around 103,000.

From the funding perspective: On May 29, the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was 359 million dollars, marking the first net outflow in ten trading days; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF was 91.92 million dollars, a rare reversal of ETH against BTC; the minutes from the May monetary policy meeting showed that the Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with dollar liquidity tightening, which may suppress BTC in the short term. However, today it was reported that Trump met with Powell at the White House, perhaps some consensus will be reached? Today's PCE data has been released, and currently traders are keeping interest rate cut expectations in September, perhaps it will continue to fluctuate down for two months to around 98,000?

Whale addresses have shown small increases around 105,000 dollars, but the net inflow of exchanges remains high (averaging over 2,000 BTC daily), indicating some investors' willingness to sell at a high.

From a technical perspective: the current minor resistance levels are around 106,900 and 107,400, while the major resistance level is around 109,800; I predict two scenarios for tonight's movement: the first is to look for daily support levels downwards (30-day EMA at 103,600 and the lower boundary of the previous range at 102,600); the second is around the previous resistance level of 107,000 (position of support and resistance swapped) or around 109,800 (downward trend resistance line, forming a daily triangle pattern for fluctuation);

Tonight, the US stock market opened lower and moved lower, which is not good for Bitcoin; long positions should be cautious of risks.

Let's see BTC's performance tonight~~~~

Who can understand the value of this chart?

Ethereum is strengthening, did you catch this wave of increase?

They say there are market trends in the crypto world every day; if you catch one wave, you can take off. However, many have missed every wave and are left regretting their missed opportunities.

Yesterday, influenced by the pullback in the US stock market, Bitcoin briefly fell back to around the previous low point of 106800 and rebounded, showing a consolidation trend. Although the price dropped, there was a net inflow of 432 million dollars into ETFs, and major institutions have seen continuous net inflows for several days, indicating strong market demand. On-chain data shows that the number of long-term holders is still increasing. Although it has emerged from a volatile consolidation trend, the overall direction remains bullish, requiring patience.

As previously analyzed, Ethereum's consolidation trend is about to end, showing signs of a breakout. Yesterday, the long position at 2610 was settled, and further entries can be made on the pullback. If it breaks above 2800, the next major resistance point will be at 3500.

Yesterday's strategy yielded profits, with Bitcoin and Solana taking losses, while ETH surged all the way.

Today's strategy has been released! Everyone, be patient!

BTC may start a weekly-level correction!

The major cryptocurrency has rebounded on low volume. Pay attention to the market's trading volume after today's US stock market opens. The resistance level is near the previous high. If it continues to make new highs with relatively low volume, the probability of a false breakout will be very high. There are signs of divergence at the weekly level, and this pattern indicates a demand for market correction, especially when prices rise without sufficient volume, making it difficult for the major cryptocurrency to initiate a new upward trend.
Currently, various technical indicators are very weak, whether it's the death cross of the five-day cycle KDJ or the MACD divergence at the weekly level, both show a trend towards correction. Pay attention to the conclusion of the Bitcoin conference tonight, as any good news from the conference could lead to sell-offs.
From a funding perspective: As of now, the likelihood of maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged in June has reached 94.4%. ETF capital inflows are slowing down, posing liquidity risks in the short term.
From a technical perspective: Currently, the small-level resistance is around 109800, while the large-level resistance is around 112300-112500. I predict two scenarios for tonight's price movement: the first scenario is a direct drop near 109800 leading to a daily-level correction, breaking below this upward trend line (which has supported six times already, with each rebound being smaller); the second scenario is a false breakout over the previous high of 112000 reaching around 112500, forming a false breakout before starting to correct. The support levels at the daily level are 102500 and 97800.

BTC will return to oscillate within the four-hour channel!

Yesterday, ETH long positions reached the first take profit target of 2640-2710. As mentioned yesterday, I expect it to remain in a range. In the small range of 2740-2470 and the larger range of 2860-2360, it will fluctuate repeatedly;
Currently, the Bitcoin market shows a clear state of divergence between bulls and bears, rather than a one-sided trend. The current long-to-short ratio of 0.46 indicates that the number of people shorting is significantly higher than those going long, reflecting intense competition between both sides. In this case, if the price is to move higher to 130,000 or 150,000, the market needs a bullish washout to reorganize strength before the next round of one-sided rise can commence; in the short term, it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate within the four-hour channel.
Today, Huang Mao suddenly posted that he suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, causing Bitcoin to dip sharply by 4,000 points. Historically, Bitcoin goes through such washout processes in every bull market, so investors need to remain highly vigilant. Today's trading strategy should be more cautious, reducing trading frequency, and especially being wary of potential waterfall-style washouts.

From the fund perspective: On May 22, the net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF was $935 million, and the net inflow of the Ethereum spot ETF was $111 million;
From the news perspective: Yesterday, Trump had a dinner, and today he imposed a 50% tariff on the EU and Canada. This is the top trader's operational method~~~ still paying attention to the April core PCE price index year-on-year and the May consumer confidence index on May 30;

Trading strategy: Short BTC at 109600-109800, with a stop loss at 110300, and targets at 105900 and 104500. Near 104500, I will take a small long position!

BTC may be consolidating at a high near 110,000!

Yesterday, I took a short position around 107,900-106,000, but unfortunately, I was still afraid to go long at the high, even though it seems likely that it could reach the previous high; currently, the Bitcoin market shows a clear state of divergence between bulls and bears, rather than a one-sided market. The current long-to-short ratio of 0.49 indicates that the number of people shorting is significantly higher than those going long, reflecting a fierce game between both sides. In this situation, if the price is to reach higher levels of 130,000 or 150,000, the market will need a long liquidation to reorganize forces before it can initiate the next round of one-sided increases; in the short term, I estimate it will continue to consolidate at a high near 110,000, and a trend change may occur next week.

From the funding perspective: On May 21, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETF was $609 million, and the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETF was $587,100. Bitcoin has reached a new high as expected, but the trading volume that broke through yesterday was average, and there was no very strong bullish candlestick with explosive volume, so it cannot be confirmed whether a new increase will begin after the breakout; we still need to observe the volume situation;
From the news perspective: still paying attention to the April core PCE price index year-on-year and the May consumer confidence index on May 30 next week;

Trading idea: ETH: Long at 2,640, with a target of 2,710-2,850, and stop loss at 2,620; I estimate it is still in a volatility range, oscillating in a small range of 2,740-2,470 and a larger range of 2,860-2,360.

There is a quality order every day.
Yesterday was Auntie 2470 to 2570.
Today is Big Coin 107900 to 106100.

The day before yesterday, ETF inflow was 600 million, yesterday's inflow was 300 million, continuing to increase, while Big Coin's fluctuation range is constantly rising. If the range of 106000-108000 is established, then a new high is just around the corner.

You might have noticed that ETH and SOL have not risen as much as BTC. In the last round when BTC reached 108000, both ETH and SOL were at super high levels. Why are they so weak this time?

Speaking of Auntie, it is showing a descending wedge pattern, clearly accumulating. If Big Coin surges in volume later, Auntie's rise will definitely be even stronger.

107900 directly goes in, everyone makes a lot of money...

I also ate a few more bowls of pig trotter rice.

Just arrived at the 106000 position, build the warehouse as appropriate.
The second target is to see 102700. Let's walk and see~~

Special note, 108200 is the upper boundary of the daily range, it's understandable if it hasn't reached.

Today's Square Order:
BTC: Short at 105200-105500, move stop loss to 105700, target 104100, 103000;
ETH: Short at 2540, target 2470-2400, stop loss 20-30 points

Is it large capital selling at high positions or pushing people off the bus?

From a technical perspective: As I mentioned yesterday, although the market is currently quite panicked, with various indicators and price spikes making people feel that the market is about to crash, please maintain your calm judgment when placing trades. Looking at the long term, I remain cautiously optimistic; as expected, last night, with the U.S. stock market opening high, our ETH2350 long position basically took profit at 2570 for the second time;
Currently, the MACD on the 4-hour chart is still above water, but it is in a weak bullish trend. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate without a significant breakout of the current range; from the candlestick chart, BTC is currently within a parallel channel, suitable for making swings with high shorts and low longs within this channel; I predict that the turning point may be next week;
From a funding perspective: On May 19, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was $667 million, and the net inflow of ETH spot ETF was $13.66 million; buoyed by increased holdings from Metaplanet and Strategy, Bitcoin rose to $107,000 over the weekend. Although there was some profit-taking selling on Monday, the spot ETF still saw continuous inflows, and institutional buying remained steady, so you can also see a quick rebound in the evening session. The current price level is near historical highs, a very sensitive area, with a large amount of capital betting on new highs for Bitcoin. Therefore, even though there was strong supply yesterday, there is still a large amount of demand absorbing that supply.
From a news perspective: Pay attention to the April core PCE price index year-on-year and the May Consumer Confidence Index on May 30 next week;

Who can understand the value of this map?

GDP negative growth but the market is up across the board, did BTC go to 96,000? What’s next?

The day before yesterday, the GDP in that area showed negative growth, with a capital outflow of 50 million. A slight outflow during major data release times is normal. In the short term, Bitcoin has the potential for further upward movement, but the momentum is limited. The probability of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in May is 94.2%, while the probability for June is 36.1%.

Yesterday's PCE price index, although in line with expectations, combined with the March wage and consumption data, sounded alarm bells: wage growth is slowing while consumer spending continues to rise. This indicates that inflationary pressures and high living costs are eroding the real income of the populace. If Friday's non-farm payroll data shows an increase in unemployment rate, market concerns about economic slowdown may heat up again, and if the unemployment rate rises and employment numbers drop significantly, it would be solid evidence of an economic recession.

From the market perspective, BTC is in a triangular convergence pattern and has just broken upward, with a significant resistance point at 97,600. For friends who have been following my articles, I started to call for a light short at 95,000 early on; 97,600 is my normal position for shorting, and I’ve also placed a few smaller orders in between, but long positions remain my main focus (there was a small long order at 94,000 earlier, and someone commented asking why I was going long at such a high position). Yesterday in the community, I also mentioned that it wouldn’t be considered a reversal until it breaks below 92,800, and it’s hard to break below. I fear that those who wanted to short at 95,000 to 50,000 will start calling for long positions at 130,000 or 150,000 now (laughing~ ~); around 93,000 is the price where institutions are defending, yet retail investors have sold off 40,000 BTC above. So, do you think 95,000 can drop directly?

Future trading thoughts: open a short at 97,600 (can lower the order a bit), with a stop loss above 98,000, or go to 98,800 to add to the position with a small stop loss; the first take profit position looks at around 92,000.

PS: The position at 97,600 has been called out many, many times...

Bitcoin continues to experience a sideways oscillation trend, with minimal market fluctuations. However, there is a contest between bulls and bears, with chips changing hands. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there is significant divergence in the market. Further observation is necessary, as the current market uncertainty is high. Waiting for a selected direction requires patience.

The direction will be out soon. If you haven't entered at 94400, don't trade. Let's wait for the direction to come out before discussing it!

After all, there is still a high position above.

For those chasing orders, keep the stop loss tight.

Bitcoin:
94400 for buying, stop loss at 300 points, looking up at 95500, after breaking through looking at 96600-97600.
Bitcoin Breakthrough Order:
Can chase after breaking 95500, with a stop at 94800. (For those who lack confidence, you can ignore chasing order operations, disregard it.)
Bitcoin High Position Short Order:
Short at 97600, looking down at 91000. (This order will adjust, every adjustment will be announced in the square.)

Yesterday, Huang Mao stirred things up again, saying that no red line will change the tariff policy, causing Bitcoin to drop to a low of 93367 after the US stock market opened, and the Nasdaq continued to decline, only to return late at night, closing with a doji star. Personally, I expect the moment of change is coming.

As a swing trader, I actually don't like to call for short orders, but the market doesn’t give you the opportunity for swing orders. With a volatility of 2000 points, how should one play?

Yesterday, BTC inflow was 590 million dollars, and last week, on-chain tracking showed that large BTC holders increased their holdings by 5800 coins in a week. Such levels of accumulation and capital inflow usually mark the beginning of a bull market.

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating in a narrow range of 92000-95000, and the 1-hour chart is starting to form a triangular convergence. A pullback to 94400 can attempt to open a long position, with a stop loss at 300 points, looking up at 95500, and after a real breakthrough, looking at 96600-97600.

As for what everyone says about reaching 100,000 or 120,000, I still feel that a pullback of at least 5%-8% is needed to have sufficient momentum to rise.

PS: Have you been paying attention to Teacher San Shang's coin?

Small orders, always calling, but we still focus on swing trend orders, compared to small orders, the profit is negligible.