The waterfall is coming! Will BTC break below 100,000!?

This trend started with a short at 110,700, shorted down to 103,600, then positioned short around 106,900 (it's a bit unfortunate that we missed it by a little over 100 points, but fortunately most of my friends entered their first position at 105,800), so where do we see ourselves now? Here I will share my thoughts, there are only two major support levels, one is around 102,000 and the other is around 98,000, both of these levels will definitely react. The first scenario is a rebound around 102,000, which perfectly corresponds to the downtrend, the second scenario is that although there is a rebound at 102,000, the larger downtrend is still not over, for example, a weekly divergence still needs adjustment, rebounding to 104,000-105,000 before dropping again to around 98,000 and then starting a new upward trend; it's still too early to judge how this will unfold, but for now, I personally lean towards the second scenario.

BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about 87 million dollars yesterday, while ETH ETF had a net inflow of about 57 million dollars. Currently, we are at a divergence point between long and short near historical highs, and some of the early buyers of Bitcoin ETF have taken profits in the past few days.

This Friday's non-farm payroll data, especially the unemployment rate, is a key reference for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Unless economic data shows significant weakness, the likelihood of an interest rate cut in the third quarter remains low;

So, do you think it can reach 102,000 this time?