Bitcoin's 4-Year Moving Average Approaches a Key Zone: Is a Bull Market Starting, or Are We Repeating a Fake Dip?
The so-called 'four-year cycle' is not just talk. BTC is currently approaching the key moving average that symbolizes the transition of cycles—the 4-year moving average, which serves as the 'time floor' in the crypto space. Each approach signifies considerable opportunities or risks.
The three lines on the chart each have their meaning:
Yellow Line: Current price trend, representing short-term emotional fluctuations;
Blue Line: 4-year moving average, serving as cycle support, and is considered the 'all-in bottom' by many;
Green Line: Average index, reflecting broader trend fluctuations.
Looking back, the launching points of the bull markets in 2013 and 2017 both experienced violent rebounds near the blue line; and each bear market bottom also laid its foundation near this line. It can be said that it serves as both a support for large funds and a psychological anchor for retail investors.
Currently, BTC is hovering near this line, which means:
Holding the blue line may indicate that the second wave of the bull market is brewing
Once it breaks down, the market may enter an 'extended battle', and the consolidation phase will take longer.
Of course, the final fate of the market is determined not only by how good the chart looks but also by the macro environment and the prevailing sentiment. Don't forget, from ETFs to elections, and to US dollar policies, external variables may crash or boost the market at any time.
