2025/6/9 #BTC Trend Analysis
BTC has experienced a V-shaped rebound since the significant drop on 6/6, which was beyond expectations. It was initially thought that 104000 would be the limit for the rebound. This level is a dense area of high-position chips and also the divide between bulls and bears that we are monitoring. Taking advantage of the weekend liquidity exhaustion, the main force has continued to gradually climb, peaking around 106500, primarily to capture the liquidity from the bears. After exhausting this liquidity, it began to retreat.
In terms of trend, we have switched to a bearish perspective. In the short to medium term, there has not been an effective break below 104000, continuing to revert to a fluctuation pattern. Currently, the fluctuation range is between 104000-107000, and which side breaks out effectively will determine the development of the medium-term trend. Subjectively, we are more bearish. The logic for being bearish is as follows: on the economic front, we are still in a tightening phase, gold continues to rise, and funds are still in a risk-averse mood. Additionally, the narrative within the crypto space itself has exhausted; seasoned investors should have experienced this. There is a lack of fresh blood in the market, as this surge to 110000 did not incite much excitement.
Structurally, we are still in the fluctuation consolidation after the first wave of decline. The first drop did not manage to escape the dense area but instead rose to the lower edge of the high central zone. The drop on 6/6 attracted a large number of shorts. In terms of funding rates, the market is generally bearish, which provides liquidity for the main force to operate. Under the sentiment of weekend liquidity exhaustion, it harvested the upper shorts. However, as a firm bear, the rise and subsequent fall provided an opportunity to increase positions.
The resistance zone above is 106500-107000, and the support zone below is 104500-104000. We still need to wait for a directional choice. Before that, we should adopt a fluctuation perspective of selling high and buying low.
The community currently holds short positions entered at 106100. If it can return to 107000 and two 4-hour candles close above, then we will abandon the short strategy in the short term. Below, we will pay attention to the support situation at 104500 to decide the holding period for short positions.
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