Bitcoin faced pressure and fell back after reaching $106,500, forming a clear stage top structure, with the daily line showing an upper shadow, indicating weakened bullish momentum. The RSI and MACD at the 4-hour level showed a top divergence, and the MACD fast and slow lines crossed bearishly at high levels, enhancing the bearish signal. If the price cannot stabilize in the $105,800-$106,000 range, the short-term correction trend may continue, with key support looking towards $105,000. After breaking this level, it may further test the $103,500-$103,000 area.
The correction process is accompanied by a significant decline in volume, while the rebound lacks sufficient volume, indicating heavy selling pressure in the market and limited bullish support. If it effectively breaks below the psychological level of $105,000 during the day, the bearish dominance pattern will be confirmed, further opening the downside space. Conversely, if the price strongly breaks through $106,500 and stabilizes, one should be wary of a bearish trap, and the strategy needs to be flexibly adjusted.
Operational suggestion:
Aggressive traders may consider lightly shorting near $105,600, with a stop loss set above $106,200, targeting $104,000-$103,500; conservative traders are advised to wait for a rebound to the $105,800-$106,000 resistance area before positioning or follow the trend after breaking below $105,000. It is essential to closely monitor changes in market sentiment to guard against sudden rebound risks.
