The short-term trend of Bitcoin is bearish, with strong resistance above. Yesterday, the price quickly fell back after reaching $105,500, indicating significant selling pressure at this level and a weakening market sentiment. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is at 42, the MACD is close to a death cross, and the price has fallen below the 50-day moving average ($104,000). If it cannot recover quickly, it may further test the 100-day moving average ($101,200). Institutional funds continue to flow out, combined with rising risk aversion in the market, increasing short-term downside risks.
Key support levels need to be closely monitored. The first support level is at $103,800; if it breaks below, it could accelerate the decline to $103,000 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level), or even test the psychological level of $100,000. Short-term traders may consider shorting near $104,800-$105,000, with a stop-loss set above $105,500, targeting $103,000 and lower. However, be wary of a technical rebound after overselling, especially the potential buying support in the $101,200-$102,000 range.
Market sentiment is cautious, and a flexible response is needed. Currently, there is a lack of strong buying interest, and the short-term bearish trend prevails, but close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy direction and changes in on-chain funds. If the price stabilizes above $105,500, it may trigger a short-covering rebound; conversely, if it breaks below $103,000, further downside potential will open up. In trading, it is recommended to primarily short on rallies while managing risk to guard against reversal risks from unexpected positive news.
