📉 What’s Driving $BTC Lower?

Macro and Market Risk-On/Off Cycles

• A recent U.S. court decision reinstating certain tariffs boosted 30‑year Treasury yields above 5%, triggering risk-off flows. $BTC , being a risk asset, was dragged down during this shift  .


  1. • Broader economic jitters — including trade tensions, Musk–Trump headlines, and underwhelming U.S. labor or economic news — continue fueling volatility  .

  2. Technical Pullback After Sharp Rally

    • $BTC recently shot past $111K (a new ATH), and now it’s undergoing a natural correction. Historically, profit-taking and technical pullbacks follow steep rallies  .

    • Chart patterns show resistance near $112K and support around $108K–$104K. A failure to hold support could trigger a deeper dip  .

  3. Larger Holders Selling & Derivatives Liquil sold in a single day—with smaller holders absorbing the demand  .

    • Heavy liquidations in BTC derivatives markets (“liquidity sweeps”) are amplifying volatility  .

  4. Low Retail Sentiment & Derivatives Funding Rates

    • Retail transaction volumes (e.g., $0–10K trades) have dipped since the $111K high, indicating waning FOMO  .

    • Funding rates remain subdued, signaling traders aren’t overly leveraged on the long side .

🧐 Could BTC Dive Further?

  • Critical supports to watch: $104K–102.7K and $100K. A sustained drop below these could prompt more downside, with $100K acting as a major psychological level  .

  • On the flip side, if macro headwinds ease (e.g., tariff clarity, dovish USPMI or job numbers), BTC could bounce back swiftly as profit-taking ends.

💬 Summary:

  • Short-term: Correction normalizing a rapid rally, exacerbated by macro stress and profit-taking.

  • Medium- to long-term: Fundamentals remain mostly intact — lower overleverage, moderate whale accumulation, and solid institutional flows (e.g.,#ETH #ETFs outperforming) are still in play  .


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