#BTC
Bitcoin Surges and Retreats: Are the Veterans Starting to Cash Out? The Market Faces a Critical Moment of Game Theory
Bitcoin just touched the historical high of $111,800, only to be smashed back to $103,000. Behind this rollercoaster ride is a collective cash-out by a group of 'veterans'—they endured the harsh winter of the bear market and are now smiling as they throw chips to the newcomers chasing the highs.
Key Script Points:
Spot Price Rises in Steps: The price levels of $81,000-$85,000, $93,000-$96,000, and $102,000-$104,000 were once the areas where the main players accumulated, and now they have become the lifeline for the bulls.
The Sell-off Zone of Veterans Emerges: The former 'golden pits' at $25,000-$31,000 and $60,000-$73,000 are now filled with profit-taking, acting like an invisible ceiling suppressing the price.
Life-and-Death Defense Line: $103,700 (the previous 5% cost line) and $95,600 (the previous 15% cost line) are the short-term critical points; breaking these could trigger panic selling.
Profit Harvesters Activated
$1.47 billion in profits is being thrown into the market daily, marking the fifth large-scale cash-out of this bull market. But this time it's different—the ones selling are not short-term gamblers, but veterans with positions held for over a year. They act like experienced hunters, choosing the moments of new highs to pull the trigger.
More subtly, the market is becoming 'aged':
During the 2018 cycle, newcomers were frantically chasing highs and selling lows;
Now, the old money calmly takes profits in batches, and the volatility increasingly resembles that of traditional financial markets.
Humanity's Game Theory Moment
When 'diamond hands' holding positions for over a year also start to sell, it often means the bull market is entering its second half. They have seen too many surges and crashes, and now prefer to exchange their chips for real cash. Meanwhile, those chasing highs are still fantasizing about $120,000 and $150,000—the market eternally repeats one story: new investors pay for the wealth freedom of the old investors.
What to Watch Next?
If it can hold at $103,700, there’s still hope;
If it falls below $95,600, it might trigger a chain reaction;
$114,800 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line, crossing it is necessary for survival.
This current game resembles the final showdown at the poker table: the veterans have already revealed some of their cards, will the newcomers dare to call? The answer will soon be revealed.
