- Highs:
2025 (short term): An absolute maximum of approximately $112,000 USD was reached in May-June. This peak was due to institutional adoption, record inflows into #ETFs, and favorable policies (for example, the Trump administration). Additionally, in January 2025, another peak close to $109,000 USD was observed.
2024: The annual high was $109,600 USD in November-December, driven by the approval of ETFs in the U.S. and the April halving.
2021 (previous cycle): The previous all-time high price was $69,000 USD during a bull cycle stimulated by economic stimuli.
- Lows:
2025 (recent corrections): A low of $88,047 USD was recorded in June, linked to the uncertainty generated by tariff policies between the U.S. and China. It is noteworthy that in April 2025, a key support was identified at $74,500 USD*, a level that prevented a deeper correction.
2024: A severe drop to $49,000 USD was observed in August, resulting from massive liquidations in strategies such as the #yen carry trade.
2022 (bear market): The cyclical low reached $16,000 USD in a context of geopolitical crises and monetary adjustments.
2. Future Projections (2025-2030)
For 2025:
- Most analysts place future prices between $150,000 and $461,000 USD based on Bitcoin scarcity, institutional demand, and potential state purchases.
- PlanB's “stock-to-flow” model even projects an average close to $500,000 USD for the period 2025-2028.
For 2026-2030:
- More conservative forecasts point to a price of $231,000 USD for 2030, according to DigitalCoinPrice. - However, there is a bullish scenario where, with eventual adoption of BTC as a strategic reserve by the U.S., the price could exceed the **1 million USD** barrier.
3. Volatility Factors and Technical Analysis
- Regulatory and Political Factors:
- The entry of ETFs in 2024-2025 contributed to billion-dollar flows (figures around **$39 billion**), while pro-crypto policies (like those of Trump) have reduced risk aversion.
- Technical Aspects:
- The realized price —the average acquisition cost— was around **$93,266 USD** in 2025. Drops below this level are usually associated with capitulations and cyclical lows.
- The chart identifies an Elliott Wave structure with a sequence of five impulsive waves (wave 1 to 5) followed by a correction (wave A-B-C).
- Wave B reached levels close to $112,000 – $115,000 USD and the projection for wave C points to deep recessions, ranging between $65,000 USD and potentially down to $49,000 USD.
- The main technical supports observed are around $105,000 USD, a crucial level; a break below $100,400 USD could trigger a drop to $90,000 USD.
- Comparison between Analyses:
- Some web analyses agree that as long as support remains above $105k, Bitcoin could bounce back and reach ranges between $120,000 and $142,000 USD in the short term.
- In light of divergence patterns in indicators like RSI and MACD, it is estimated that, if the correction is confirmed, prices could descend toward critical support levels close to $64,500 USD and $48,986 USD.
4. General Conclusion
$BTC - Bitcoin maintains a **long-term bullish trend** supported by structural fundamentals such as scarcity and institutional demand, although in the short term it faces marked **volatility** derived from macro events, regulatory changes, and conflicting technical signals.
- Positive Scenario: If the action remains above **$105 – $107k**, a rebound and extension of the rally to new highs is possible, potentially reaching **$120,000 – $142,000 USD** in the short term and marking new records according to projections for 2025.
- Correction Scenario: On the other hand, failures to maintain these critical levels could trigger a correction (wave C in the Elliott Wave analysis) with a possible minimum in ranges close to **$64,000 – $49,000 USD**.
This synthesis reorganizes and groups essential information, facilitating a comprehensive view of both historical milestones, future projections, and the critical technical factors influencing the price evolution of $BTC - Bitcoin.
