$BTC - Technical Aspects:

- The realized price —the average acquisition cost— was around **$93,266 USD** in 2025. Drops below this level are usually associated with capitulations and cyclical lows.

- The chart identifies an Elliott Wave structure with a sequence of five impulsive waves (wave 1 to 5) followed by a correction (wave A-B-C).

- Wave B reached levels close to $112,000 – $115,000 USD and the projection for wave C points to deep recessions, situated between $65,000 USD and potentially down to $49,000 USD.

- The main technical supports observed are around $105,000 USD, a crucial level; a break below $100,400 USD could trigger a drop to $90,000 USD.

- Comparison between Analyses:

- Some web analyses agree that as long as support remains above $105k, Bitcoin could rebound and reach ranges between $120,000 and $142,000 USD in the short term.

- In light of divergence patterns in indicators such as RSI and MACD, it is estimated that if the correction is confirmed, prices could descend towards critical support levels near $64,500 USD and $48,986 USD.

4. General Conclusion

$BTC - Bitcoin maintains a **long-term bullish trend** supported by structural fundamentals such as scarcity and institutional demand, although in the short term it faces marked **volatility** derived from macro events, regulatory changes, and contradictory technical signals.

- Positive Scenario: If the action remains above **$105 – $107k**, a rebound and extension of the rally to new highs is possible, potentially reaching **$120,000 – $142,000 USD** in the short term and marking new records according to projections for 2025.

- Correction Scenario: On the other hand, failures to maintain these critical levels could trigger a correction (wave C in the Elliott Wave analysis) with a minimum possible in ranges close to **$64,000 – $49,000 USD**.