Dear friends, the most worrying situation has emerged! The US job market is undergoing a sudden change, with a wave of unemployment surging in. A financial crisis seems to be quietly taking shape behind the scenes!
A huge gap of 92,000 has appeared in CME futures, could Bitcoin drop another 10%? Meanwhile, the direction of the Fed's interest rate cuts has suddenly changed. What hidden truths lie beneath?
First, let me clarify for everyone, the 'financial backers' of the crypto space, Wall Street, are now struggling to protect themselves. The employment data has been consistently disappointing, with the latest unemployment figures showing an unexpected surge of 10,000 in first-time jobless claims, an increase of over 5%. This marks the second consecutive week of rising unemployment. Looking at the small non-farm ADP data, it is equally bleak, with an expected addition of 110,000 jobs, but only 37,000 were added, directly cutting more than half. Behind this, the negative impact of tariffs is quietly permeating, economic indicators are lighting up red, and the so-called prosperity at present may just be a mirage; the curtain on economic recession or even a financial crisis may slowly be drawn.
From the analysis of Bitcoin's K-line trend, whether it is the 5th wave or the 7th wave, the upward trend has already ended. According to wave theory, after the main upward wave of the 5th wave ends, the ABC wave correction phase follows. The current rebound is very likely just the B wave rebound, with prices expected to touch around 107,000, while the subsequent C wave decline is the real play; whether this classic trend can be accurately performed is worth our close attention.
Focusing again on CME futures, the gap of 93,000 is like an unfilled 'chasm'; historically, Bitcoin prices have always filled CME gaps, whether at 40,000, 60,000, or 80,000 gaps, they have all been 'conquered'. Therefore, this 93,000 gap is by no means a trivial matter; everyone must pay attention.
However, in the short term, there is solid support around the 100,000 mark for Bitcoin. This integer level has repeatedly resisted downward momentum. Taking a long position for short-term rebound profits is a good choice, and one can then short when the price rebounds to a high point, flexibly profiting within the range.
Returning to the unemployment data, from a long-term perspective, this may actually accelerate the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 55%. If a rate cut happens, it will inject the much-desired incremental funds into the crypto space. Therefore, theoretically, the crypto market may be under pressure in July and August due to rising unemployment and inflation data, but is expected to regroup after the Fed cuts rates in September and October. This deduction aligns with Spoofy’s holding strategy.
Let's talk about Spoofy again. He started continuously selling off when Bitcoin was at 110,000, and even now that it has dropped to 100,000, he is still selling. This indicates that, in his view, this is not a good time to increase positions, and there is no need to rush into long-term bottom fishing. Looking back at his past operations, he typically waits at least one or two months after exiting before re-entering the market. Thus, long-term positioning can patiently observe the movements around the 93,000 gap. We will follow the rhythm of the whale, and if the giant whales start bottom fishing, I will notify everyone immediately. Please don’t forget to keep following me.
Of course, not all is bleak in the market. This week, there was a call between the leaders of China and the US, releasing positive signals that US-China tariffs may be breaking the ice. However, trade negotiations between the US and Japan/Europe have hit a deadlock, with Japan's Economic Minister Akizuki Ryo firmly demanding the US to comprehensively reduce tariffs, leaving no ground; similarly, Europe is not backing down and even angered Trump to consider imposing a 25% tariff on EU products, but this plan has been postponed to July 9.
This month, the liquidity situation has also been tumultuous. First, the stablecoin issuer Circle went public on Nasdaq last Thursday, with stock prices soaring nearly 200%, drastically siphoning off funds from the crypto space. Following that, Solana leader PumpFun will hold a presale within two weeks, selling 20% of tokens at a valuation of 5 billion, or 1 billion dollars, which will trigger further selling of Bitcoin by institutions and retail investors, causing a secondary 'bleeding' in the market. The precedent of 'Trump Coin' on January 17 is still fresh in memory, when the market directly fell into a bear market. Just a few days ago, I repeatedly reminded everyone during live broadcasts and posts to reduce positions at highs and not to cling to tail end trends, ensuring timely profit-taking. In just a few days, Bitcoin has dropped 10% from its highs, and Pepe has nearly halved. Everyone must take this as a warning and maintain a sense of respect for the market.
Please, everyone, give a follow and support, grateful and thankful 🙏🏻
$BTC
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