In the ever-changing landscape of the cryptocurrency market, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin investment strategy is like a brilliant yet controversial star. Since the beginning of September 2024, the company embarked on a bold Bitcoin financing journey, launching a $42 billion financing plan that expanded to an astonishing $84 billion by May 2025. To date, MicroStrategy has acquired approximately 580,000 Bitcoins at an average purchase price of around $70,000, and over the past year, it has utilized more than $30 billion in financing to add about 380,000 Bitcoins, completing roughly one-third of the overall financing plan.
In the realm of cryptocurrency, MicroStrategy's series of actions has sparked much speculation and controversy. Some firmly believe that the rise in Bitcoin prices over the past year is closely related to MicroStrategy's 'crazy buying spree.' After all, only 160,000 new Bitcoins were produced in the past year, while MicroStrategy's purchasing volume far exceeded double that amount, and regardless of the price, they have been unhesitatingly active. The company’s president, Saylor, has also clearly stated that he is optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term future, rather than the short-term price fluctuations.
However, this aggressive strategy hides enormous risks. The key premise is that Bitcoin's price cannot remain below the cost line for an extended period; otherwise, the company will face significant debt interest pressures, forcing it to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations. Currently, MicroStrategy's perpetual debt scale is approximately $2 billion, with quarterly interest payments exceeding $50 million. If the debt scale continues to expand, this pressure will rapidly intensify. If Bitcoin experiences a two-year period of low-level fluctuations, interest expenses alone could reach as high as $4 billion.
Once the market realizes that MicroStrategy can only rely on selling Bitcoin to repay its debts, investor confidence in the company will collapse, leading to further declines in Bitcoin prices and creating a continuous negative cycle. As the investment guru Warren Buffett said, companies that cannot manage their cash flow ultimately cannot escape being controlled by creditors.
The emergence of MicroStrategy is quietly changing the price cycle of Bitcoin. In a bull market, its large-scale buying behavior may drive prices up, making the market trend more vigorous; while in a bear market, the pressures and potential selling behaviors they face could deepen the market’s downturn. They bet that the rise in Bitcoin's price, both in timing and extent, will surpass the downturn phases, but the more successful the strategy, the more likely it is to trigger a larger leverage effect, which could ultimately lead to systemic risks in the entire cryptocurrency market.
Looking back at history, we find that while history does not simply repeat itself, its rhythms are always similar. If a financial crisis similar to that of 2008 erupts in the future, causing global financial markets to fall into turmoil, with the S&P 500 dropping by 50% and Berkshire Hathaway's stock price halving, then Bitcoin is also likely to face a decline of over 80%. At that point, companies like MicroStrategy, heavily reliant on leveraged Bitcoin purchases, will struggle to endure this storm; once liquidation occurs, the entire cryptocurrency market may fall into a new abyss.
As the saying goes, 'What goes around comes around.' MicroStrategy's Bitcoin investment journey is full of unknowns and challenges. If it ultimately faces a crisis, it may become the largest 'landmine' in the cryptocurrency field. All of this has made people curious and concerned about the future trajectory of MicroStrategy. Will it ride the waves of Bitcoin, or will it fall into difficulties due to its aggressive strategy? The answer can only be revealed by time.
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