Bitcoin's current trading price is down 7% from its historical high of $112,000, and as the entire cryptocurrency market cools down, Bitcoin faces increasing selling pressure. While some analysts believe Bitcoin may decline further, others point out that shifts in the global market landscape could soon favor Bitcoin. Rising U.S. bond yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions are reshaping risk sentiment across financial markets, which could position Bitcoin as a hedge during uncertain times.
A key signal comes from whale activity. According to the latest data from Alphractal, the ratio of whales to retail investors has begun to rise again, indicating that large investors are taking on more risk while retail investors are remaining cautious. Historically, an increase in whale appetite often precedes significant price increases, as institutional investors tend to act preemptively during uncertain periods. This divergence between whales and retail investors may suggest that despite the current price pullback, the market is undergoing a phase of accumulation beneath the surface.
The next few days are crucial. If Bitcoin can hold the key support level, the involvement of strong investors may support a price reversal or consolidation, after which the price may attempt to retrace again. Currently, whale investor confidence is strengthening—if market sentiment turns bullish again, this could become a key factor.
Systemic uncertainty has led to increased whale activity.
Despite the ongoing impact of systemic risks, rising inflation, and deteriorating macroeconomic indicators in the global market, Bitcoin continues to trade above the critical $100,000 mark. Even as volatility in stocks and commodities intensifies, Bitcoin appears to be entering a phase of resilience, which typically arises when investors seek alternative assets during uncertain times.
Inflation in developed economies persists, and bond yields continue to rise, putting pressure on traditional markets. In this context, Bitcoin's status as an unstable hedge against currency is being reconsidered. However, sentiment across the entire cryptocurrency market remains divided, with many retail investors adopting a cautious stance as volatility intensifies.
According to Alphractal's latest data, a significant divergence is forming between the behaviors of whale investors and retail investors. The ratio of positions held by whales to those held by retail investors has begun to rise. This indicates that whale investors are starting to go long again, while retail investors are still maintaining a risk-averse strategy.
Historically, surges in this ratio often precede significant price increases, as whale investors typically accumulate before overall market volatility. "Risk appetite is returning," Alphractal notes—this could be a bullish signal amid the current bearish sentiment.
If macro conditions stabilize and BTC secures key support, this quiet accumulation by large investors could lay the foundation for a strong trend. As the market seeks direction, whale investor confidence may become a catalyst for a turnaround.
Bitcoin is consolidating above key support levels.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the key support level of $103,600 during recent market volatility and is now continuing to consolidate just above that support level. The daily chart shows BTC's current trading price at $104,341, and if demand continues, it could form a potential high-low structure to support a price rebound.
Price movements continue to hover between the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $103,256 and the upper resistance level of $109,300, which is a recent local high. Maintaining above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (currently $101,026) is crucial for sustaining a broader upward trend.
Trading volume has slightly decreased, indicating that momentum has weakened after a significant 5% pullback earlier this week. This low-volume environment could open the door for large players to accumulate funds before attempting to break out again. The market is currently watching to see if bulls can push BTC back to the resistance levels of $108,000-$109,000 to test whether it can return to historical highs.
A drop below $103,600 would indicate market weakness and could drive BTC down towards the 100-day moving average near $92,600. Currently, Bitcoin remains strong, but any significant macro developments or shifts in market sentiment will determine whether the current consolidation becomes a launch point or a reversal.
