After a brief dip to $103,450, the Bitcoin price rebounded quickly, and as of now, it has returned to around $104,400. Despite approximately $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated in the past 24 hours, this drop did not trigger sustained panic but was rather seen as a regular fluctuation within a larger trend.
Crypto researcher Klarch pointed out in his latest analysis that this pullback is not unexpected and may even be the 'final washout' before Bitcoin starts a new round of increases.
Cyclical patterns: The operational logic of Bitcoin after each halving.
According to Klarch's research, Bitcoin has shown similar growth patterns after each halving:
Within 365 days after the 2016 halving, BTC rose by 280%.
Within 367 days after the 2020 halving, BTC rose by 550%.
In this cycle, it has been 416 days since the 2024 halving, and Bitcoin has only risen about 70%.
From a time comparison perspective, the current pace of Bitcoin's rise is noticeably slower. However, Klarch emphasizes that in historical cycles, earlier trends often remain relatively stable before entering a steep ascent. Therefore, the current slow rise may just be a consolidation phase before the main upward wave arrives.
'Bitcoin's cycle is highly repeatable. The increases after the previous two halvings accelerated within a year. According to historical patterns, the true explosion point has not yet arrived.' — Klarch
On-chain data and market structure support the upward logic.
In addition to the cyclical model, on-chain indicators are also reinforcing bullish expectations. Recently, Bitcoin's network transaction volume and the number of active addresses have both reached new highs, which usually occurs in the 'mid-bull market'. This corresponds with Klarch's proposed 'multi-peak structure'—Bitcoin typically experiences multiple phase highs before reaching a peak, rather than a single surge.
Specifically:
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,100 on January 20.
It then approached the high point again on May 22, reaching $111,980.
Klarch believes these fluctuations are not peak signals but rather a normal phase within the market structure, stating, 'The real endpoint often occurs after FOMO emotions completely explode.'
Demand-side logic: ETF and institutional increases lead to sustained accumulation.
Another key factor supporting Bitcoin's long-term rise is liquidity. Klarch points out that the sustained buying power of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and the strategic accumulation actions of institutional players like **Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)** are continuously depleting the circulating Bitcoin supply on exchanges, leading to a gradual tightening of supply.
He further stated: 'The stable accumulation by ETFs, institutions, and high-net-worth individuals is building a strong support area for prices. If the current trend continues, Bitcoin's price could theoretically rise to $180,000, which is over a 75% increase from the current level.'
It is worth noting that asset management giant VanEck has also proposed similar price targets, indicating that there are voices in the market that align with Klarch's views.
Potential risks: The path to rise is not without hazards.
Although the medium to long-term logic is solid, short-term attention is still needed on two potential variables:
The rhythm of ETF fund inflows fluctuates.
Uncertainties in the global financial markets.
If ETF inflows slow down or significant disruptions occur at the macro level, it may trigger a structural pullback.
The climax has not yet arrived, and the cycle is not over?
In summary, although the recent price pullback has caused a brief market fluctuation, the overall cyclical logic of Bitcoin remains intact. From historical models, on-chain data to funding structures, the current phase resembles a consolidation period before the main upward wave begins.
If history repeats itself, the real big trend may not have truly started yet.