"The Great Escape from the Crypto Market! Why Do You Always Buy at Highs and Sell at Lows?"
1. Review of Market Conditions Before May
The previous market was like a repeatedly slapping scumbag: every time it fell, it pretended to rebound, and just when everyone thought it was warming up, it continued to crash. This cycle of 'drop - rebound - drop again' made many people unable to hold on and cut their losses, while some stubbornly chased the rebound, only to end up stuck at the peak.
By the sudden surge at the end of May, coupled with policies hinting at warmth, many believed the bull market had truly arrived, madly increasing their positions and refusing to sell. As a result, the main forces turned around and dumped; this tactic of 'pulling up to entice more buyers' buried all the latecomers—this completely aligns with our previous reminder that 'when most people are firmly increasing their positions, be wary of a counterattack.'
2. Judging Key Turning Points
The current market is like walking a tightrope, and several key scenarios must be closely monitored:
1. BTC's life-and-death line is at $100,000: If this level is quickly broken, panic selling is likely to flood out, but it may actually be the last drop. Just like a spring being compressed, the harder it falls, the stronger the rebound; if it can hold around $97,000, the probability of breaking through $110,000 later is greater.
2. Cautious Rebound is Most Dangerous: If BTC slowly creeps up to around $109,000, absolutely do not chase the rise; this position is likely a temporary peak, and it is actually a signal to retreat.
3. Don't Hold ETH on Short-Term Trades: Currently, ETH has rebounded to the awkward position of $2500-$2600, where previous support has turned into resistance. Short-term traders should reduce their positions. However, long-term holders of ETH need not panic; even in extreme situations if it drops to $2200, it would only mean giving back half of the gains from the beginning of the year, and dropping to that level might actually allow for more solid upward movement.
Suggestions
The recent plunge in altcoins is essentially a cleansing of leverage; don’t rush to catch the bottom, wait for BTC to stabilize above $100,000 before considering.
ETH's short-term resistance is at $2550-$2600; breaking through requires volume support, otherwise, it is prone to retreat.
Focus on two signals: whether BTC can build a bottom in the $97,000-$100,000 range, and whether the Federal Reserve will release interest rate cut expectations in June.
The current market is like a pressure cooker; the main forces are deliberately shaking and washing the plates. Remember that panic selling creates golden opportunities, but do not reach out to catch falling knives; wait until the knife is firmly in the ground before picking it up.
Follow me, and I will help you see through phenomena to understand essence, together we can navigate through bulls and bears.
Focus for the day: MASK LA ETH BTC
