"Trump is not looking to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman this time, but to replace the market's 'anchor of stability'."
Core Analysis:
1. Sinister Timing: Trump chose to release the news after Friday's close, clearly wanting the market to digest the panic over the weekend to avoid a crash that day.
2. Premature Pressure: Powell's term lasts until February 2026, but by hinting at a change nearly two years early, it effectively undermines him publicly.
3. Obedient Fed: What Trump wants is not independence but a 'tool' that can collaborate with his crazy rate cuts during the election year. Last night he just called for a '100 basis point cut,' and today he hinted at changing leadership, a blatant threat.
4. Market Trust Crisis: If the new chairman's policies conflict with Powell's, there will be a split within the Fed, and forward guidance will become ineffective—when Trump threatened to fire Powell in 2018, U.S. stocks dropped 5% in a week; this time could be worse.
Personal Opinion:
This move by Trump is more toxic than directly firing Powell; it maintains an appearance of 'decency' while forcing the Fed to comply. However, the market hates uncertainty, and once the candidate is announced, whoever takes office will inevitably cause a short-term shock. The August non-farm payroll data is about to be released; if the job market cools, Trump will seize the opportunity to pressure for rate cuts. This game has just begun...
"Will Powell resign early? Is the new chairman a dovish puppet or a hawkish hardliner? Before the answer is revealed, the market is destined to lose sleep."
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