#TrumpVsMusk When Elon Musk recently announced that he was stepping back from politics, investors believed this could mean the billionaire's attention would return to the many tech companies he runs.

But the explosive clash with President Donald Trump in recent days suggests that Musk's shift in priorities may not be the relief they were hoping for.

Instead of Musk stepping back from the public eye and focusing on boosting profits for Tesla and his other companies, he now finds himself facing a boycott threat from one of his main clients, the Trump government.

Tesla's shares went into free fall on Thursday (06/05) — dropping 14% — as Musk railed against Trump on X, his social network.

Shares rebounded somewhat on Friday (06/06), after some signs that tensions were cooling.

Even so, for investors and analysts who, for months, made it clear they wanted Musk away from his phone and back to work, the situation is far from ideal.

Tesla: 'They are way behind'

Some, however, argue that the problems with Musk's businesses run much deeper than this dispute with the Republican.

For veteran technology journalist Kara Swisher, this is especially true for Tesla.

"Tesla is over," she summarized to the BBC during the San Francisco Media Summit earlier this week.

"It was a great automaker. They could compete in the autonomous robotaxi segment, but they are way behind."

Tesla has long been trying to catch up with rival Waymo, owned by Alphabet, the parent company of Google.

Waymo's autonomous robotaxis have been traveling the streets of San Francisco, USA, for years — and now operate in several other cities.

This month, Musk is expected to oversee the launch of a batch of Tesla's autonomous robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

He posted on X last week that the manufacturer was testing the Model Y without drivers on board.

"I believe that 90% of Tesla's future value will be autonomous and robotic," said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, to the BBC this week, adding that the launch in Austin would be "a game changer."

"The first task is to ensure that the project has a phenomenal start."

But, with Musk's attention divided, the chances of the project's success seem more remote.

And there is something else to consider: Musk's own motivation.

Lately, the debate in Silicon Valley focuses less on whether Musk can reverse the situation and more on whether he really cares about it.

"He is a really powerful person when focused on something," says Ross Gerber, president and director of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management.

"Before, it was about proving to the world that he would make electric vehicles — a technology no one else could make. It was about proving he could build rockets. He had a lot to prove."

A long-time Tesla investor, Gerber became disheartened and has been reducing his investments since Musk's foray into right-wing politics.

He described Thursday as an "extremely painful day."

"It's the dumbest thing you could do: thinking you have more power than the President of the United States," said Gerber, referring to Musk's comments against Trump on social media.

The BBC reached out to X, Tesla, and SpaceX for a statement on behalf of Musk, but received no response.

Trump vs. Musk: the 10 days that ended the 'bromance' between billionaire and president

More obstacles for Tesla

Before enemy Donald Trump, Musk was already facing another one on social media and in the streets: protests, dubbed #TeslaTakedown, which have been happening across the country every weekend since Trump took office.

In April, Tesla reported a 20% drop in car sales in the first quarter. Profits plummeted more than 70%, and stock prices also fell.

"He shouldn't be deciding the fate of our democracy by slowly dismantling our government. It's not right," protester Linda Koistinen told me at a protest in February, in front of a Tesla dealership in Berkeley, California.

Joan Donovan, a researcher studying misinformation networks, helped organize the #TeslaTakedown campaign on social media.

"Ultimately, it's not about the technology or the Tesla corporation," Donovan points out.

"It's about how Tesla's shares have been used as a weapon against people, putting Musk in a position of enormous power without any transparency."

Another aspect of Musk's empire that sparks the ire of his critics is X, the social network formerly known as Twitter.

"He bought Twitter to have influence and, in the blink of an eye, reach hundreds of millions of people," Donovan states.

Personal brand

There is, however, another possibility.

Could Musk's misunderstanding with Trump help rehabilitate the billionaire among those who have come to reject him for his closeness to the Republican?

Patrick Moorhead, chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, believes so.

"We are a very tolerant country," Moorhead states.

"These things take time," he acknowledges, but "it's not unprecedented."

Swisher cites Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates as an example.

For more than two decades, the journalist says, Gates was considered "the Darth Vader [Star Wars villain] of Silicon Valley" because of his "arrogant and rude" personality.

Today, in general, Gates has strongly recovered his image.

"He learned. He grew. People can change," Swisher analyzes, noting, however, that Musk is "clearly disturbed."

Exit through space

The problem for Musk is that his future and that of his companies does not depend solely on what he does, but also on Trump's decisions.

And while Trump needed Musk in the past, mainly to finance his campaign, it is not so clear if he needs him now.

Noah Smith, author of the Noahpinion Substack blog, believes that Trump's highly profitable foray into cryptocurrencies — however indecorous it may have been — may have freed him from dependence on Musk.

"My guess is that this was done so he could get rid of Elon Musk," Smith states.

In the most threatening comment on Thursday, Trump suggested cutting government contracts with Musk's companies, which are estimated to be worth $38 billion.

A significant part of this goes to the space company SpaceX — which apparently threatens its future.

However, Trump's warning may be a bit emptier than it seems.

This is because SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft transports people and cargo to the International Space Station, where three NASA astronauts are currently stationed.

This shows that SpaceX has become so intertwined with the US space and national security apparatus that Trump's threat may be difficult to carry out.

One could argue similarly about Musk's internet satellite company, Starlink.

Finding an alternative to it may be easier in theory than in practice.

But if there are limits to what Trump can do, the same also applies to Musk.

In the midst of his discussion with the president, he threatened to shut down the Dragon, but it didn't take long for him to backtrack.

Responding to a suggestion from a user on X to "calm down," Musk wrote: "Good advice. Okay, let's not shut down the Dragon."

It is clear that the friendship between Musk and Trump is over. It is less certain that their mutual dependence has come to an end.

Whatever the future of Musk's businesses, it seems that Trump — and the decisions of his government — will continue to have a major influence on them.