$BTC $BTC Before the rate cut in September, Bitcoin still reaches new highs!

On June 6, boosted by the mild cooling of the labor market, the Nasdaq index jumped 1% during trading, and Bitcoin soared over 3%, both escaping the drag from Trump's and Musk's Twitter feud. Within two days of the ADP and non-farm data being released, Trump unusually called on Powell to cut interest rates quickly on social media four times in a row. Although Trump's calls did not receive a response from Powell, the 'rate cut trade' has quietly become one of the hottest themes currently.

According to federal funds futures pricing, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 45 basis points in the second half of the year (most likely in two increments of 25 basis points each), with the first rate cut likely to occur in September, where the probability of a rate cut is 58% = (5+4+5.5)/25. The CME FedWatch tool shows even stronger expectations for easing—this indicator shows that the probability of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in September has risen to 62.4%, indicating that some traders are betting on earlier and more aggressive easing policies.

One important reason the market is particularly focused on the first rate cut is: according to historical back-testing since 1990, the average cumulative rate cut in the 12 months following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut is 175 basis points. Current interest rate futures pricing shows that from September 2025 to December 2026, the federal funds rate will be cumulatively lowered by 125 basis points, which means that the initiation of the first rate cut equals the start of a new easing cycle.