Currently, most of the highly leveraged long positions in $BTC have been 'washed' out. If there are no major negative news events in the future, such as particularly poor non-farm data or employment rates, it will be difficult for BTC to continue to decline solely based on the imbalance in the futures market. After this decline, the futures open interest has significantly decreased from the previous peak, and the price has fallen below the lower boundary of the previous oscillation range, indicating that the position is low. However, the long positions in the futures market still exceed those of the previous period. What does this indicate? If we want the adjustment to stop falling above $100,000 and restore an upward trend, the ideal approach is to allow the price to oscillate in this area, rising and falling, prompting the longs that have not been washed out to exit proactively. Only by clearing out those 'crowded in the vehicle' can the market be more likely to recover to previous highs.
Technically, this may manifest as repeatedly testing the lows, gradually forming a 'bottom pattern' to build momentum for a subsequent surge. If these positions are not fully digested, and BTC rises directly, it is likely that it will only break through the 'next high point' and then fall back, or even prematurely end the upward cycle. Of course, if the market continues to break down, such as falling below $100,000, the currently high positions will contribute to the decline. However, technically it makes sense, but we hope the price can consolidate for a while to clear out leverage, making the subsequent trend more stable and healthier.
Recently, market fluctuations have been significant, so let's take it steady and patiently watch key levels, treating each operation like stalking prey; once the opportunity arises, strike decisively and enjoy the spoils easily!
